影響房地產市場交易量之系統動態模擬－以政府階段性政策爲例

One Dynamic Simulation Model of Real Estate Transaction Volume-In the Case of Gradational Ratio Policy by Government

魏文欽(Wen-Chin Wei) ； 洪麗芬(Li-Fen Hung)

《International Journal of Lisrel》 4卷2期 (2011/09) Pp. 34-69

https://doi.org/10.30063/IJL.201109.0002

摘要

本文研究是以具動態複雜性的國內房地產市場交易量變化爲分析對象，探討其趨勢變化，以及更深入的了解其利率政策變動過程，以動態觀點來探討房地產市場交易量之影響變數且其相互間之因果變動情形。爰此，本研究動機是針對降息之因應政策、成效及影響層面，探討此政策對國內房地產市場交易量之影響狀況。本研究方法是分析過去相關文獻，探討影響房地產市場變動之影響因數，以關連性因素分析爲理論，作爲建立系統架構之參考，並以台灣房地產爲實證對象，將過去10年（2001-2010年）之時間序列資料做爲基礎，建立過去研究較少鑽研之市場交易量變動模型，進行變動趨勢之動態模擬，目的是協助政府判斷階段性政策之實施，是否對長期的房地產市場變動趨勢造成負面影響，或相關政策實施其必要性，這是相當值得進一步探究，俾以提出相關的因應政策，以供政府有一明確精準之相對措施參考。

關鍵字

房地產 ； 市場交易量 ； 系統動力學

並列摘要

The research paper are based on the object which is about the volume of dealing in domestic real estate that possesses dynamic complexity for variation analysis, discuss the variation trend, also study deeply to realize the process of ratio policy. The influence factors and the variable situation of volume of transaction for real estate are discussed by the viewpoint of dynamic. Our motive is for the reason how to face the reducing the interest rate and what are the right countermeasures, results and affects that to arouse the policy.The method we used is to analysis the previous documents and research the effect factors of real estate when it is variable. By the relatedness factors, analyze for theory to accomplish and establish the reference of system. Through the object of Taiwan real estate and refer to the period of past 10 years (2001~2010), I establish One Dynamic Simulation Model of Real Estate Transaction Volume which is less studied intensively. The purpose of the research could assist the government to judge the gradational policy and confirm if it makes the negative effects long term for the real estate or it is necessary to perform the policy. It is worth to discuss further. Through the related countermeasures, the paper could supply the government to have a clear and exactly strategy in the near future.

並列關鍵字

Real Estate ； Transaction Volume Dynamic ； Simulation Model