從統制經濟到開放市場：論戰後初期國民政府對外貿易政策的轉變及其原因

抗戰勝利之初，國民政府突然放棄戰時實施的管制外匯及統制對外貿易的政策，轉而取消對出口農產品的統購統銷、撤銷貿易委員會和國營貿易公司，並且開放黃金和外匯市場，對進口商品採取放任的態度。主政者推行這一政策的初衷，是想藉開放外匯市場和出售庫存黃金以回收過量發行的貨幣，進口大量外國商品來改善物資供應不足、物價不斷上漲的局面，希望在較短的時間內制止日益嚴重的通貨膨脹。然而事態的發展卻與當局的意願截然不同。開放金融市場的後果，導致國庫中大量的外匯與黃金外流，而放任外國商品的自由輸入，更使得國際收支嚴重失衡，隨著內戰的擴大，國統區的經濟危機已病入膏肓，最終導致國民政府失去大陸的政權。戰後國民政府執行對外貿易政策的正確與否，是影響其政權統治成敗的關鍵所在。本文依據大量的原始檔案，參考相關的學術成果，首先將戰後推行的政策與戰時實施的統制經濟政策加以聯繫，同時注意到抗戰勝利後國內外環境的變化，著重分析主政者的理財信念及其心態，在此基礎上試圖對國民政府戰後初期實施貿易開放政策的初衷、制定政策的經過與內容，以及政策實施的後果進行全面的闡述，進而深入分析國民政府為何在戰後匆忙推行自由經濟政策的背景與原因。

關鍵字

戰後初期；統制經濟；貿易政策；宋子文；開放金融市場；自由貿易

並列摘要

Shortly after China declared victory in the Anti-Japanese War, the National Government abruptly shifted from its wartime control policies over foreign currency and trade to the cancellation of constraints on the export of agricultural products, and the abolishment of the Foreign Trade Committee and National Trade Corporation. Also exercising a noninterference policy on imported merchandise, the government further opened the gold and foreign currency markets. The initial intention of policymakers was to collect the vast amounts of excess currency issued during the war by means of opening the foreign currency market and selling gold reserves. In order to solve the shortage of goods and services as well as the serious inflation then plaguing society, they hoped that the import of large amounts of foreign merchandises would cure the ever-worsening inflation within a short period of time. Yet actual developments were a far cry from the government's initial expectations. Opening the financial markets led to the outflow of government gold and foreign currency reserves. The unrestrained imports of foreign goods and services also immensely aggravated the huge imbalance between international revenues and expenses. And as the Civil War progressed, the economies in Guomindang-controlled districts fell beyond remedy, which contributed to the final fall of the Republic of China. This article explores whether the political failure of the postwar government of the Republic of China was determined by its foreign trade policy. Drawing on an abundance of original sources and relevant research literature, the article begins with a comparison of foreign trade policy during and after the war. With the focus on the ever-changing domestic and international conditions of the postwar world, the article strives to probe into policymakers' financial beliefs and mentality in an attempt to present a comprehensive description of the initial intentions, policy-making processes, and the precise content and ramifications of the postwar open market trade policy imposed by the government. An in depth inquiry into the background and reasons behind this particular is correspondingly provided.