- 期刊
- OpenAccess
Determining the Performance of Male Tennis Players Using the Weighted Elo Rating System
以WElo等級分系統定義男子網球選手表現
摘要
Purpose: This study utilization innovative mathematics models to define the top male professional tennis players in different eras. Mathematics is the mother of science, this mode currently used in a number of professional sports competitions. And aimed WElo rating system method analysis compares and analyzes the results of Grand Slam ranking, hard court ranking, clay court ranking and grass court ranking, Find the best male professional tennis player in history. Methods: The research use from 1968 to 2021 match data analysis, and used the Python software to the designated location to fetch the data, and ingest the data into the formula calculate the career WElo score, and use Spearman to analyze WElo ranking, Grand Slam ranking, clay ranking, grass ranking difference between different rankings or relevant. Results: Results show the WElo ranking was significantly different from the Grand Slam ranking (p < .01) and the clay court ranking (p < .01), grass court ranking (p < .05). Only the hard court rankings have no significant difference and have consistency, Currently, data show the best performer are Novak Djokovic in history, and he is the closest to the origin in the ranking diagrams, and he is leading indicator of the second placed Bjorn Borg. Conclusion: This study analyzes the advantages of different generation player competitions, and be also analyze and solve the comparison method when competing in different surface, the compare results show, In today basically to become GOAT most player good on hard court performance, while at other surface of different surface also need to have a good performance in order to have good performance. In the open era, even top players will have more suitable venues with special advantages or performance preferences. The top players have more stable performance on hard courts, and it is easier for different players to appear on grass and clay courts, this data analysis model even can be used as predictive analysis in the future.
並列摘要
目的：本研究利用數學結合目前競賽對弈評估水準方式，目前用於多項職業運動競賽，而數學為科學之母，此研究是利用數學屬於創新評估型態的模型，來定義不同年代歷史上最佳男子職業網球選手，並利用WElo等級分系統分析方法並與傳統大滿貫數量排名、硬地球場排名、紅土球場排名及草地球場排名結果進行比較分析，找出歷史最佳男子職業網球選手。方法：研究以1968至2021年開放年代以來所有對戰紀錄做為資料分析，並撰寫軟體至指定位置擷取資料數據，再將獲取之數據帶入公式，以算出生涯WElo分數，並利用斯皮爾曼（Spearman）等級相關係數分析並檢視不同排名之間的差異或檢視出WElo排名與大滿貫排名、紅土排名草地排名排名否有關聯性。結果：研究結果顯示WElo排名與大滿貫排名（p < .01）、紅土排名（p < .01）與草地排名（p < .05）達顯著差異，僅有硬地排名未達顯著差異，顯示硬地與WElo排名選手排名有一致性。目前裡史上表現最佳選手為Novak Djokovic，同時在各項排名關係圖中最靠近原點位置，並領先歷史第二名的Bjorn Borg不少距離。結論：本研究分析優點不僅能將不同年代選手共同評比，還能分析並解決在不同場地競爭時的比較方式，比較後結果顯示，在現今要成為歷史上最基本上選手硬地表現不僅要好，同時在其他不同材質場地也需要有好的表現才能有亮眼的數據，開放年代至今即便是頂尖選手，也會出現較合適且有特別優勢或是表現偏好的場地，而普遍頂尖選手在硬地球場表現較為穩定，在草地與紅土球場較容易有不同選手出現，此數據分析未來甚至也可以作為預測分析的模型。