台灣印刷業產值成長與衰退的研究

A Study on Growth and Decline of Printing Industry Output Value in Taiwan

李柏堅(Bo-Jian Li) ； 張世宏(Shih-Hung Chang)

《中華科技大學學報》 78期 (2019/12) Pp. 23-42

摘要

台灣印刷業由日治時代到國民政府播遷來台曾經盛極一時，歷經多次衰退直到2011來到高峰，直到今天已經連續衰退了8年，本研究採用多元迴歸方法建立模型，發現製造業生產指數對印刷業產值有正面且顯著的影響，由於近十年以來上網人口逐年上升，閱讀習慣漸漸改變，出版業漸漸式微，換來的是大量電子書與影音媒體，上網使用人口對印刷業產值有負面且顯著的影響，本研究將印刷業30年來的產值以時間序列的方式進行分析，發現製造業生產指數與印刷業產值有共整合關係，表示兩者之間存在著長期穩定的關係，製造業生產指數至今還在成長，相信不久的將來印刷業將走出衰退重返過去的榮景，最後也對印刷產業提出建議。

關鍵字

單根 ； 共整合 ； 向量誤差模型

並列摘要

Taiwan's printing industry has been in full flourish since the Japanese colonial period in Taiwan and the Chinese Nationalist Government relocated to Taiwan, After many recessions until the peak of 2011, it has been continuously declining for 8 years., we used multiple regression methods to build models in this study and found that the manufacturing production index(MIP) has a positive and significant impact on the output value of the printing industry(POV), In the past ten years, the Internet population has increased year by year, and reading habits have gradually changed. The publishing industry is gradually declining, in exchange for a large number of e-books and audio-visual media. The number of Internet users(NIU) has a negative and significant impact on the output value of the printing industry. We analyze the 30-year output value of the printing industry in a time series in and found that the manufacturing production index(MIP) has a co-integration relationship with the output value of the printing industry(POV), indicating that there is a long run causality relationship between this two variables, the manufacturing production index(MIP) is still growing, and it is believed that in the near future, the printing industry will come out of the recession and reproduce the original glory. In the end, it will also make recommendations to the printing industry.

並列關鍵字

Unit root ； Johansen co-integration ； VECM