東亞四國國防支出、經濟成長與通貨膨脹相關性之研究

The Relationship between Defense Expenditure, Economic Growth and Inflation: Evidence from East Asia four Countries

郭國誠(Guo-Guo Cheng) ； 嚴進興(Chin-Hsing Yen)

《國防管理學術暨實務研討會》 第十九屆 (2011/06) Pp. 139-155

https://doi.org/10.29497/GFGL.201106.0139

摘要

中國在經濟成長的支持下，近年來國防預算均呈百分比兩位數成長。由於中國不斷擴張軍備與增強軍事力量之影響下，為確保國家生存安全與發展，亞太各國均積極發展軍備。本研究以追蹤單根檢定(Panel Unit Root Test)及追蹤資料迴歸模型(Panel Data Regression Model)分析東亞四個國家（臺灣、中國、日本及韓國）國防支出、經濟成長及通貨膨脹之關聯性研究。研究結果顯示，國防支出與經濟成長互為因果關係。表示國民經濟能力的提升，帶動整體國家的經濟基礎，國防預算編列的額度亦相對較高。而國防支出雖然有移轉民間所得的作用，但對民間部門活動亦產生正面的效果進而促進經濟的成長。經濟成長與通貨膨脹呈顯著正向相關，顯示各國的通貨膨脹率可能仍處於較低或較溫和的狀態，所以緩慢的通貨膨脹將有利於經濟發展。國防支出與通貨膨脹呈顯著正向相關。可能表示大部份的國防支出都是資本財貨的採購，創造單方面對市場的需求，如果政府面臨長期的赤字問題，就會增加通貨膨脹的壓力。

關鍵字

國防支出 ； 經濟成長 ； 通貨膨脹 ； 追蹤資料迴歸模型

並列摘要

China's in support of economic growth in recent years showed the percentage of double-digit defense budget growth. Since the continuous expansion of China's military and enhance the impact of military forces, for the security and development to ensure national survival, Asia-Pacific countries are actively developing armaments. In this study, using panel unit root test and panel data regression model analysis of four East Asian countries (Taiwan, China, Japan and South Korea) Defense expenditures, economic growth and inflation of the association study. The results show that defense spending and economic growth exist causality. Enhance national capacity, said, lead the overall country's economic base, the amount of defense budget is also relatively high. Although, the defense spending has transfer of the role of folk Income, but also on private sector activities and thus have a positive effect on economic growth. Economic growth was a significant positive correlation with inflation, showed the inflation rate countries may still be lower or more moderate state, so low inflation rate will help economic development. Defense spending was a significant positive correlation with inflation. It indicates that most of the defense expenditures are capital goods purchases, and create unilateral market demand, if the government faces a long-term deficit, will increase inflationary pressures.

並列關鍵字

Defense Expenditure ； Economic Growth ； Inflation Rate ； panel data regression model