以Budyko曲線分解法與氣候彈性法探討濁水溪沖積扇逕流量改變原因之研究

Evaluating Runoff Variation in the Zhuoshui Alluvial Fan Through the Decomposition of the Budyko Curve and Use of Climate Elasticity Methods

陳信宇(Hsin-Yu Chen) ； 葉信富(Hsin-Fu Yeh)

《中華水土保持學報》 52卷2期 (2021/06) Pp. 89-99

https://doi.org/10.29417/JCSWC.202106_52(2).0003

摘要

氣候因素與人為活動是造成水文循環改變的主因，逕流除了是水文循環中重要的一環以外，更是評估可用水的重要指標，因此探討逕流改變的原因有其必要性。本研究探討濁水溪沖積扇1980至2018年長期逕流量變化原因，以Budyko架構為基礎的分解法與氣候彈性法兩種簡易、所需資料較易取得的方法來量化氣候因素與人為活動造成逕流變化的衝擊。結果顯示長期逕流量在2003年發生明顯轉變點，氣候因子造成逕流改變的貢獻超過九成，然而人為活動對逕流改變的影響力顯得較小。另外，Budyko方法與標準化植被指數（NDVI）一致顯示植被覆蓋有減少的情形，本研究提供簡易評估逕流變化原因方法外，也分析出濁水溪沖積扇逕流改變原因，希望能作為水資源政策管理以及土地使用管理上的參考。

關鍵字

Budyko架構 ； 逕流 ； 氣候因素與人為活動 ； 濁水溪沖積扇

並列摘要

Two primary factors that alter the hydrological cycle are climate change and anthropogenic activity. Runoff is a component of the hydrological cycle as well as a measure of sustainable water availability. Therefore, assessing runoff variation has become a research topic of interest. In this study, we first used statistical nonparametric methods to analyze the runoff trend and change points during 1980-2018 for the Zhuoshui Alluvial Fan. We then quantified the effects of runoff variation by decomposing the Budyko curve and using climate elasticity methods, which are used in attribution analysis. We used the most applicable Budyko model for the Zhuoshui Alluvial Fan, and the results indicated that the runoff series significantly changed in 2003. We determined that the main reason for the runoff variation was climate change and that the change in runoff was most sensitive to changes in precipitation. Finally, the modeling results were consistent with the observation of decreased vegetation coverage after 2003. The results of this study are expected to serve as a reference for water resource and land use management in the area covered by the Zhuoshui Alluvial Fan.

並列關鍵字

Budyko framework ； runoff ； climate change and anthropogenic activity ； Zhuoshui Alluvial Fan