油價不確定下之儲油策略分析

Strategic Petroleum Reserve under Oil Price Uncertainty

李叢禎(Tusng-Chen Lee)

《農業與資源經濟》 6卷2期 (2009/12) Pp. 103-127

https://doi.org/10.29796/ARE.200912.0004

摘要

近年來國際油價震盪上揚，油品使用成本之不確定性遽增，石油安全議題再度引起熱烈討論。本文在考量油價風險下，利用實質選擇權理論(real option theory)建立儲油策略模型，同時進行數值模擬分析，以說明油價不確定性將如何影響儲油價值及儲油決策之制定。本文主要貢獻有二：首先，有別於既有文獻著重於最適儲油存量之求解，本文建議當存在油價風險時，應設計靈活且富有彈性的儲油存量調整機制，以有效運用儲油資源，提升儲油效益；其次，本文凸顯油價風險對於儲油策略擬定之影響，並與忽略油價風險之傳統文獻「成本效益分析法」所得結果比較之，研究方法及結果爲文獻之補充，並可作爲儲油政策擬定之參考。

關鍵字

策略性儲油 ； 油價不確定性 ； 實質選擇權理論

並列摘要

The fluctuation of oil price has become a significant public issue in the recent years. Due to high uncertainty in the cost of oil use, the concerns for national oil security are raised. This paper analyzes the petroleum reserve strategies under oil price uncertainty using real option theory. Our contribution to the current literature is twofold. First, instead of solving the optimal oil stockpile like the previous studies did, we suggest that petroleum reserve strategies should be designed with flexibility so that oil stockpile could be used effectively. Second, we highlight the role of oil price uncertainty in determining the reserve strategies, and show how our results differ from those derived in the cost-benefit analysis neglecting such uncertainty. Our methodology and associated results supplement to the literature and could provide a better reference in practical policy design.

並列關鍵字

Strategic Petroleum Reserve ； Oil Price Uncertainty ； Real Option Theory