台灣新型流感再生基數探討

The Basic Reproduction Number for Influenza a Virus (H1N1) in Taiwan

陳信榮(Hsin-Jung Chen) ； 林炎成(Yen-Cherng Lin)

《中華職業醫學雜誌》 18卷3期 (2011/07) Pp. 175-188

https://doi.org/10.30027/CJOM.201107.0003

摘要

Influenza A virus (H1N1) originated in Mexico, and in just four months spread to countries around the world, Taiwan cannot exclude since the influenza virus is a new one evolved in the past the research data. It is impossible to infectious and severity of any understanding so that each national health authority all over the world unable completely to grasp its impact. The basic reproduction number analyzed by Fraser et al [1] for the H1N1 influenza outbreak in Mexico is 1.58, representing a unit of time derived from influenza patients will be 1.58 patients. Based on past knowledge base for the basic reproduction number whenever the basic reproduction number greater than 1 means that diseases will spread, otherwise it will disappear. By the results that estimate of new influenza H1N1 will spread in Mexico, and perhaps will lead to serious pandemic. In this study we analyze growth of the patients of H1N1 influenza in Taiwan and found some new information and estimations in it. This information could give health authorities further understand the impact of this disease through the implementation of public policy and advocacy related to health knowledge so that the disease can cause losses to a minimum. Our results are very similar to the Mexico data which is analyzed by Fraser. We then can speculate by the Mexico's experience and the control the H1N1 epidemic situation in Taiwan so that we can improve alertness, but not too panic.

關鍵字

再生基數 ； A型流感病毒(H1N1)

並列摘要

Influenza A virus (H1N1) originated in Mexico, and in just four months spread to countries around the world, Taiwan cannot exclude since the influenza virus is a new one evolved in the past the research data. It is impossible to infectious and severity of any understanding so that each national health authority all over the world unable completely to grasp its impact. The basic reproduction number analyzed by Fraser et al [1] for the H1N1 influenza outbreak in Mexico is 1.58, representing a unit of time derived from influenza patients will be 1.58 patients. Based on past knowledge base for the basic reproduction number whenever the basic reproduction number greater than 1 means that diseases will spread, otherwise it will disappear. By the results that estimate of new influenza H1N1 will spread in Mexico, and perhaps will lead to serious pandemic. In this study we analyze growth of the patients of H1N1 influenza in Taiwan and found some new information and estimations in it. This information could give health authorities further understand the impact of this disease through the implementation of public policy and advocacy related to health knowledge so that the disease can cause losses to a minimum. Our results are very similar to the Mexico data which is analyzed by Fraser. We then can speculate by the Mexico's experience and the control the H1N1 epidemic situation in Taiwan so that we can improve alertness, but not too panic.

並列關鍵字

Basic reproduction number ； Influenza A virus (H1N1)