國小導師預測學生國中輟學之可能性之甄別研究

An Identification Study on Elementary Homeroom Teacher's Efficacy in Predicting Students' Middle School Dropout Behavior

章勝傑(Simon Chang) ； 周慧婷(Tina Chou)

《臺北市立教育大學學報. 教育類》 39卷2期 (2008/11) Pp. 35-69

https://doi.org/10.6336/JUTe/2008.39(2)2

摘要

The purpose of this study is to examine the reliability, validity, and accuracy of elementary teachers' rating on students' tendency of dropping out in middle school level. Twelve hundred and thirty one students were rated at grade six and followed up through ninth grade, and 34 of them were found to have dropped out by then. Teachers' predicting scores were was found to be stable (test-retest reliability r=.81, p＜.01). The criterion referenced validity was also found to be satisfactory, since the mean rating of the dropout students is significantly higher than that of students in the non-dropout comparison group. Although the total predicting accuracy seemed fine, the dropout hit-rate and the false positive rate left much to be desired. However, the overall accuracy of teachers' predicting rating on student dropout is similar to that of a 60-item dropout scale. In a model which included 11 other predicting variables such as family structure and SES, teachers' predicting still came out to be the most dominant predictive variable. The implications of the results were discussed.

關鍵字

中輟 ； 教師預測 ； 早期甄別

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to examine the reliability, validity, and accuracy of elementary teachers' rating on students' tendency of dropping out in middle school level. Twelve hundred and thirty one students were rated at grade six and followed up through ninth grade, and 34 of them were found to have dropped out by then. Teachers' predicting scores were was found to be stable (test-retest reliability r=.81, p＜.01). The criterion referenced validity was also found to be satisfactory, since the mean rating of the dropout students is significantly higher than that of students in the non-dropout comparison group. Although the total predicting accuracy seemed fine, the dropout hit-rate and the false positive rate left much to be desired. However, the overall accuracy of teachers' predicting rating on student dropout is similar to that of a 60-item dropout scale. In a model which included 11 other predicting variables such as family structure and SES, teachers' predicting still came out to be the most dominant predictive variable. The implications of the results were discussed.

並列關鍵字

dropout ； teacher prediction ； early identification

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