利用CMIP6資料評估氣候變遷對溪頭鳳凰山闊葉樹保育區氣候分類的影響

Using the CMIP6 Data to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Climate Classification of Xitou Mt. Phoenix Broadleaf Conservation Area

賴彥任(Yen-Jen Lai)

《國立臺灣大學生物資源暨農學院實驗林研究報告》 35卷3期 (2021/09) Pp. 171-186

https://doi.org/10.6542/EFNTU.202109_35(3).0003

摘要

陸地與大氣交互作用於自然狀況下，長期氣候將形成一個獨特的森林生態系統。然因人為的干擾及氣候變遷，相對恆定的長期氣候受到破壞，將使森林生態系統受到衝擊而轉變型態。溪頭鳳凰山闊葉樹保育區為臺灣大學實驗林管理處規劃將自行成立之保育區，為維持其代表性，該保育區面對氣候變遷可能的影響應進行評估，才能於制訂長期保育策略加以因應。本研究利用Trewartha氣候分類法評估該保育區當前氣候類型，再利用CMIP6資料評估未來氣候可能的氣候類型變遷，結果顯示溫室氣體排放的4個情境下，於2100年仍將維持亞熱帶潮濕氣候；然海拔1600 m以下的區域，於更細分的亞型則有可能隨不同排放情境，由當今Cfb亞型（亞熱帶夏季濕潤涼爽氣候）轉移為Cfa亞型（亞熱帶夏季濕潤炎熱氣候），就研究區主要的保育對象闊葉樹而言，可能將轉為更為適生的棲地環境，然可能不利於針葉樹生長。

關鍵字

Trewartha氣候分類 ； 氣候變遷 ； 森林生態系

並列摘要

The long-term climate usually forms a unique forest ecosystem due to the interaction between land and atmosphere under natural conditions. However, human disturbance and climate change might destroy the stable status of the long-term climate, and further affect and alter the type of forest ecosystem. The Xitou Mt. Phoenix Broadleaf Conservation Area is a potential conservation area that the Experimental Forest of National Taiwan University is planning to establish. For the representativeness of this conservation area in the future, the potential impacts of climate change should be evaluated in order to formulating long-term conservation strategies. This study used the Trewartha climate classification method to evaluate the current types of this conservation area. Then, outputs from the circulation models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to project potential changes. The results indicated that under the four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the climate type of the Xitou Mt. Phoenix Broadleaf Conservation Area by 2100 will remain as subtropical humid climate. When further assessing the climate subtype, the simulation results showed that in the areas below 1600 m a.s.l. may shift from the current Cfb subtype (subtropical cool humid summer climate) to Cfa subtype (subtropical hot humid summer climate) under different gas emission scenarios. It indicated that the future climate might become more beneficial for the broadleaf species fulfilling the main targeted conservation objective; however, it might not be suitable for the growth of the conifers.

並列關鍵字

Trewartha climate classification ； Climate change ； Forest ecosystem ； WorldClim