本研究利用統計科學方法建立預警模型,期能事前預測並降低公司可能發生財務危機之機率,提升公司績效。實證分析上,利用財務資訊變數、K-S檢定、M-U檢定、建立Logit迴歸模型,找出影響公司績效之顯著變數。實證研究發現,財務比率變數以償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力與現金流量指標為主;利息保障倍數愈高,可增強公司償債能力,對債權人愈有保障;降低借款依存度,增加現金流量允當比率,可提高公司經管能力;適度降低內部保留比率,可提高獲利能力與公司績效;財務資訊可提供投資人選股策略參考。準此、本研究實證價值與管理涵義在財務風險管理、投資決策與財務預測。
This study uses statistical methods to establish early-warning models, to predict and reduce the company's potential risk of financial crisis improve corporate performance. In its empirical analysis, to use financial information, K-S tests and M-U tests, to establish Logit regression model and identify variables significantly affect the company's performance. The study finds that the major financial ratio variables are financial structure solvency, Operating performance, Profitability indicators and cash flow. Times interest earned higher the better can enhance the company's solvency, the more protection to creditors; Reduce dependence on borrowing and increase cash flow adequacy ratio, can improve the company's operating performance; Moderately lower rate of internal reserves, can increase profitability and corporate performance. Financial information can offer investment a whiff of tactics of suitable person is consulted. The paper is useful to researchers or practitioners who are focused on financial risk management, investment decisions and financial forecasting.