| 摘要Abstract | 本研究旨在探討台灣上市公司暫時性盈餘之屬性，包括：1.預測無關論：暫時性盈餘無法用來預測下期盈餘。2.無持續性：暫時性盈餘不具持續性。3.評價無關論：暫時性盈餘與股票評價無關。4.績效無關論：管理當局的績效與暫時性盈餘無關。 本研究所建構之模式可分為兩個部份，線性資訊模式以及評價模式。線性資訊模式旨在探討盈餘之時間序列動態過程，評價模式則根據線性資訊模式建構一個公司股價與會計資訊關聯模式。本文係透過對線性資訊模式以及評價模式係數之測試，驗證暫時性盈餘之屬性。 本文以台灣上市公司為樣本，研究期間為民國70年到民國92年。 研究結果發現： 1.暫時性盈餘符合預測無關論，亦即，在給定持續性盈餘及帳面價值資訊下，無法透過暫時性盈餘預測下一期之盈餘。 2.暫時性盈餘不具持續性。 3.關於評價無關論方面，若暫時性盈餘具有持續性及預測攸關性，暫時性盈餘才具評價攸關性。否則，暫時性盈餘不具評價攸關性。 4.暫時性盈餘無法用來反應管理當局之績效。This study is to explore the attributes of transitory earnings for firms listed on TAIXE. The attributes under study include four aspects. The first aspect is forecast irrelevance meaning that transitory earnings could not forecast earnings for the next period. The second aspect is no persistence. Thirdly, value irrelevance refers to the fact that transitory earnings have nothing to do with stock evaluation. Finally, effort irrelevance refers to the fact that the effectiveness of the management authority has no relationship with the transitory earnings.
This study has revised Ohlson model (1995) into a new one that can be divided into two parts: the linear information model and the accounting-based valuation model. The linear information model examines the dynamic process of time series for earnings. Based on the previously mentioned linear information model, the valuation model examines the pattern of the association between a firm’s stock prices and its accounting information. This study examines the attributes of transitory earnings through the testing of coefficients such as the linear information model and the valuation model.
This study has taken the listed companies in Taiwan as examples and set the research period to be from the 1981 to 2003. The research results show as follows:
1. Transitory earnings could justify forecast irrelevance, which means when giving the information of persistent earnings, transitory earnings could not forecast the earnings for the next period.
2. Transitory earnings have no persistence.
3. In regard to value irrelevance, transitory earnings will have no value relevance unless they have forecast relevance and persistence.
4. Transitory earnings cannot reflect the efforts of the management authority. |