淡江大學會計學系

期刊

項目	資料
卷期 Vol. & No.	第20卷第1期 Vol 20 No. 1
標題 Title	盈餘管理與經理人盈餘預測修正的關聯性 Association between Earnings Management and Management Earnings Forecasts: Evidence from Mandatory Revisions
作者 Authors	潘健民 Chien-min Kevin Pan
出版日期 Publish Date	2019-05-31
摘要 Abstract	利用日本的上市公司的強制盈餘修正資料，本文主要探討企業的盈餘管理行動與盈餘預測的關聯性。日本雖然強制企業發布盈餘預測，但也容許企業在預見將來的盈餘可能有重大變動時可以修正之前所發布的盈餘預測數字。先前的研究文獻對於盈餘預測修正的研究主要有兩項結果。有文獻指出企業會進行盈餘管理以避免修正盈餘預測，但也有研究結果指出企業會先發布偏高的初始盈餘預測，然後再慢慢的調降後續預測以避免負的盈餘驚喜。本研究利用應計項目與實質盈餘指標發現，盈餘管理與盈餘預測修正有負的相關。本研究同時也發現在向下修正盈餘預測的公司與發佈多次盈餘預測修正的公司的盈餘管理也是與盈餘預測修正之間有負的相關。但是本研究並沒有在向上修正盈餘預測的公司發現盈餘管理與盈餘預測修正之間的關聯。本研究同時發現，在發布多次盈餘修正的情況下，向上修正與向下修正的結果是不變的。 Using mandatory forecast revisions data from listed firms in Japan, I examine the association between earnings management and management earnings forecasts. Japan’s disclosure system allows firms to revise previous earnings forecasts if they foresee any significant changes. Previous studies have yielded somewhat mixed results: (a) firms manage earnings to avoid issuing earnings revisions and (b) firms issue upward-biased initial forecasts and then revise subsequent forecasts downward to avoid negative earnings surprises. Using metrics for both accrual-based and real earnings management, I find that earnings management is negatively associated with earnings forecast discrepancies. I also find a negative association between earnings management and forecast discrepancies for firms that issue downward forecast revisions and multiple forecast revisions. However, I find no association between earnings management and forecast discrepancies for firms that issue upward revisions. The results hold for upward and downward revisions under the condition of multiple revisions.
關鍵字 KeyWords	盈餘管理、經理人盈餘預測、盈餘預測修正 earnings management, management earnings forecasts, earnings forecast revisions
DOI (全文下載 Download)	10.6675/JCA.201905_20(1).03
相關文章 Related Articles	審計品質對上市公司盈餘管理之影響(The Effect of Auditor's Quality on Earnings Management) 本益比變動與盈餘管理(Changes in Price-Earnings Ratios and Earnings Management) 企業多角化對財稅差異之影響(The Effect of Corporate Diversification on the Book-Tax Differences) 實質盈餘管理與會計師產業專業及審計公費之關聯性：公司管理階層對審計品質之認知(The Relationships between Auditor Industry Specialization, Audit Fees and Real Earnings Management: The Management Perceptions on Audit Quality) 限制員工權利新股、董事委員會與實質盈餘管理：以台灣上市櫃公司為例(Restricted Stock Grants, Board Committees, and Real Earnings Management: Evidence from Publicly-Traded Companies in Taiwan) 績效基礎的紅利發放政策對盈餘管理的影響(The Effect on Earnings Management of Bonus-Grants as Performance Incentives) 現金增資之盈餘管理行為：裁決性應計項目與業外損益之整合性決策(Earnings Management Around Seasoned Equity Offerings: The Joint Decision of Discretionary Accruals and Asset Sales) 成本僵固性之實證研究(An Empirical Study on Cost Stickiness) 環境策略、環境管理與企業價值－以台灣製造業為例(Environmental Strategy, Environmental Management and Firm Value - Evidence from Taiwan's Manufacturing Industry) 忙碌會計師與盈餘管理之關聯性(The Association between Busy Auditors and Earnings Management) 經理人能力與盈餘管理之關聯(The Association between Managerial Ability and Earnings Management) 集團企業產業多樣化與審計產業專家之外溢效果(Industry Diversification of Business Groups and the Spillover Effect of Audit Industry Specialization)

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