The Application of Weighted Markov Chain to the Prediction of Plum Rains Intensity of down and Middle Streams of Yangtze River Basin

加权马尔可夫链在长江中下游梅雨强度预测中的应用

夏乐天(Le-Tian Xia) ； 朱元甡(Yuan-Shen Zhu)

《管理科學與統計決策》 1卷1期 (2004/12) Pp. 75-84

https://doi.org/10.6704/JMSSD.2004.1.1.75

摘要

本文通过对46年的梅雨强度指数资料的分析，将长江中下游的梅雨状况划分为强梅年、偏强梅年、偏弱梅年、弱梅年共4个状态，应用加权马尔可夫链来预测和分析未来年份的梅雨状况，其方法思路清晰，客观易懂、计算简便、准确可靠，为亚热带海洋性湿润地区的梅雨状况预测分析提供了一条新的途径。

關鍵字

梅雨强度 ； 指数 ； 权马尔可夫链 ； 预测

並列摘要

The plum rains intensity of the down and middle streams of Yangtze river area can be divided in to 4 states: that is powerful plum rains year, less powerful plum rains year, less weak plum rains year and weak plum rains year based on the plum rains intensity index analysis of 46 year's. The weighted Markov chain is used to analyze and predict the following year's plum rains state, and the conclusions are correct. The specific, accurate, reliable, easy method provides the new way to predict the plum rains intensity of subtropics ocean humid areas.

並列關鍵字

plum rains intensity ； index ； weighted Markov chain ； prediction

參考文獻

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