中國大陸零關稅進口臺灣水果及兩岸直航對臺灣水果產業之衝擊仿真－TWAPS系統的應用

Impact Simulation of China's Dropping Taiwan Fruit Tariffs and Direct Cross-Strait Transportation on Taiwan Fruit Industry-An Application of TWAPS

許玉雪(Esher Hsu)

《管理科學與統計決策》 6卷1期 (2009/03) Pp. 1-24

https://doi.org/10.6704/JMSSD.2009.6.1.1

摘要

本文旨在模擬中國大陸零關稅進口臺灣水果及兩岸直航對臺灣水果產業的衝擊，並據以提出因應措施。仿真分析採用臺灣農業政策仿真系統（以下簡稱TWAPS），透過出口成本的外生設定來執行。TWAPS系統是以生產活動為基礎、政策為導向研發建立的一套農業政策仿真系統，可用以進行各種農業政策之模擬研究。本文兩種情境仿真結果顯示中國大陸零關稅進口臺灣水果及兩岸直航對臺灣水果產業經濟面的影響皆是正面的，其影響效果在短期內並不大，只有檳榔、芭樂及蓮霧產業所受影響較大，其餘皆不明顯。然長期而言，尤其在兩岸直航下將擴大其影響效果。

關鍵字

大陸水果 ； 臺灣水果 ； 兩岸貿易 ； 兩岸直航 ； TWAPS ； 政策模擬

並列摘要

This study aims to evaluate the impact from China's dropping Taiwan fruit tariffs and Direct Cross-Strait Transportation on agricultural sector of Taiwan and provides some policy suggestions as well based upon the simulation results. The simulation employed Taiwan Agricultural Policy Simulation System (TWAPS) with changing export cost as an exogenous variable. TWAPS is an activity-based and policy-orientated system, which is established based upon the concept of agricultural production activities and their input-output flows in Taiwan agricultural sector. This simulation system is thus used to do the simulation analysis for various agricultural policies. Simulation results from two scenarios show that the China's preferential trade measures and Direct Cross-Strait Transportation have positive influences on economic side of Taiwan fruit industry. The impacts are small in short term. The simulation results show that only guavas, wax apples, betel nuts would be significant impacted. In long term, it is noticed that the impact effects could be enlarged under the Direct Cross-Strait Transportation.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan Fruit ； Cross-Strait Trade ； Direct Cross-Strait Transportation ； TWAPS ； Policy Simulation

參考文獻

任愛榮、田志宏、越一夫、李艾宇、陳忠毅(2005)。海峽兩岸農產品貿易發展與探索。中國農業科學技術出版社。

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許玉雪(2005)。臺灣農業政策模型－TWAPS。行政院農業委員會。

許玉雪()。,未出版。

許玉雪()。,未出版。