臺灣地區整體低生育率的趨勢,在各縣市的降幅卻有不一致的現象。本文利用臺灣地區23縣市1990-2010年之年度資料,選取可能影響婦女意願的縣市總體因子,主要使用OLS迴歸模型,試圖驗證在控制各縣市其他地區效果不變之下,所選取的變數發揮的作用程度為何。研究方法為第一階段為縣市總體因子與生育率各自的相關程度分析;第二階段以線性迴歸模型搭配控制縣市地區效果。結果發現無論是否控制縣市效果,戶量、所得、結婚率、失業率以及服務業人口比例等變數,對影響各縣市女性生育意願皆有明顯的作用力。在控制縣市效果之下,人口密度、戶量、所得、結婚率、農業及服務業人口比例對提高生育意願有正向推動力;另外,失業率、女性勞動參與率、女性教育程度以及醫療資源比例則有降低生育的趨勢,其中女性勞動參與呈現可能有跨區就業的情形。而較為可惜的是房價變數,因樣本選擇問題並未能實際反應對生育的影響。
The fertility rate of Taiwan has become lower and lower, but the decrease in the fertility among counties is not the same. In this study, we use the annual macro data of 23 counties over the period from 1990-2010 to estimate several macro variables effects on fertility by applying the OLS regression model with controlling country effects. The results show that the variables of density of households, income, marriage rate, unemployment rate and the proportion of people of the services sector have significant impacts on the fertility whether it control the country effects or not. After controlling the country effects, the variables about density of households, income and marriage rate turn to have larger effects on fertility, but the variables of unemployment rate, labor supply and education level of women would make fertility down.