影響觀光產業股價報酬率之因素

Factors Affecting Stock Returns of Tourism Industry

潘芷瑩(Jhih-Ying Pan)

指導教授 ： 胡為善

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201400852

摘要

摘要
隨著經濟高度發展，人們對於休閒觀光品質的需求大幅提升，加上環保意識的抬頭，使得各國愈來愈重視被公認為無煙囪工業的觀光旅遊產業所帶來對經濟成長之影響，就連台灣政府近十年來亦非常重視觀光產業對國家經濟發展的重要性。
根據台灣觀光局的統計，2004年自國外來台旅遊人數約為295萬人次，至2013年已突破801萬人次(其中觀光人數從103萬人次成長至548.3萬人次)，成長率分別為172%及432%，透過來台人數的擴張增加消費，提高觀光產業獲利性與經營績效，進而帶動經濟成長。而在來台客源市場中，自大陸、日本、東南亞地區及港澳地區來台之旅客人數即佔總來台人數的87.4%，其中以大陸旅客人數居冠，自2008年開放大陸旅客來台，其旅遊人數自2004年的20萬人次(觀光人數為94,765人次)，攀升至2013年的287萬人次(觀光人數達226萬人次)，來台人數大幅成長逾13倍，而2013年來台觀光的外匯收入高達新台幣3,748億元，約占當年GDP的2.5%。可見觀光收入對台灣的經濟成長亦有不容小覷的影響。
本研究主要探討自2008年開放陸客來台後，至2013年總來台旅客人數的成長率與以觀光為目的之來台旅客人數成長率，對於15家上市櫃觀光企業股價波動之影響，以追蹤型資料(Panel Data)進行實證分析，並分別探討自此四個地區之來台旅客人數成長率與觀光旅客人數成長率對觀光企業股價波動之影響。實證結果彙總如下：
1.總來台旅客人數成長率對於股價報酬率無顯著影響，但以觀光為目的之總來台旅客人數對觀光產業股價報酬率則呈現顯著正向影響。
2.自大陸來台之旅客人數成長率對觀光產業股價報酬率並無顯著影響，但以觀光為目的之大陸來台旅客人數成長率對觀光產業股價報酬率呈現顯著正向影響。
3.自日本來台的旅客人數成長率與以觀光為目的之日本來台旅客人數成長率對觀光產業股價報酬率均無顯著影響。
4.自東南亞來台的旅客人數成長率與以觀光為目的之東南亞來台旅客人數成長率對觀光產業股價報酬率均無顯著影響。
5.自港澳來台的旅客人數成長率與以觀光為目的之港澳來台旅客人數成長率對觀光產業股價報酬率均呈現顯著正向影響。

關鍵字

來台旅客人數成長率 ； 來台觀光旅客人數成長率 ； 追蹤型資料 ； 股價報酬率

並列摘要

Abstract
Along with the rapid development of economics, people’s demand for the best quality of tour and sightseeing greatly increase. Moreover, as the environmental awareness improves, various countries emphasize the development of tourism industry. Consequently, the development of tourism industry in Taiwan has also steadily grown during the past decade. For example, Taiwan’s foreign tourists grew rapid from 2.95 million in 2004 to 8.01 million in 2013. (i.e, the growth rate is 172%). Additionally, the number of people for tour and sightseeing purposes also grew from 1.03 million in 2004 to 5.48 million in 2013. (i.e, the growth rate is 432%), partly because the rapid development of the relationship between Mainland China and Taiwan and the openess of free and independent travel for Chinese tourists (i.e, the tourists from mainland China grew from 200,000 in 2004 to 2.87 million in 2013). The tourist industry created NT$374.8 billion foreign exchange revenues in 2013, accounting for about 2.5% of Taiwan’s GDP. This fact indicates that the growth rate of tourism industry plays an important role in the economic development of Taiwan.
This study employs panel data model to examine the impact of the growth rate of total tourists and that of tour and sightseeing on the stock returns of tourism industry during the period of Aug. 2008 to Dec. 2013. For the past six years, we found that 87.4% of the tourists came from China, Japan, South East Asia and Hong Kong and Macao, so that the tourists came from these four areas have great impacts on the foreign exchange revenues and economic growth of Taiwan. This investigation thus examines the impact of the growth rate of tourists from the above four areas on the stock return of tourism industry. Empirical results are summarized below:
1.The growth rate of total tourists does not have significant influence on stock returns, but that of tour and sightseeing has significantly positive impact on stock returns of tourism industry.
2.The growth rate of tourists from China does not have significant effect on stock return of tourism industry, but that of tour and sightseeing has significantly positive influence on stock returns of tourism industry.
3.Neither the growth rate of tourists from Japan nor that of tour and sightseeing have significant impact on stock returns of tourism industry.
4.Neither the growth rate of tourists from South East Asia nor that of tour and sightseeing have significant effect on stock returns of tourism industry.
5.Both the growth rate of tourists from Hong Kong and Macao and that of tour and sightseeing have significantly positive influence on stock returns of tourism industry.

並列關鍵字

Tourism growth ； Panel data model ； Stock return

參考文獻

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