台灣光電產業發展迄今逾30年,整體產值已達2兆新台幣,對台灣經濟成長佔有重要的地位。正由於光電產業的發展良窳,對整體經濟有重要的影響,因此本研究試圖找出影響台灣光電產業發展之因素,並透過Johansen共整合檢定與向量誤差修正模型探討台灣光電產業營收與總體經濟變數之間長期均衡關係。 實證結果發現變數間確實存在共整合關係,且具有長期均衡關係,在向量誤差修正模型實證結果顯示,光電業主要競爭國家韓國的出口額對台灣光電產業營收有顯著的負向影響。而美國NASDAQ 指數對光電產業營收有顯著的正向影響。這代表台灣光電業的營收表現主要受到來自競爭國家的影響,以及主要出口市場的股市環境和景氣變化影響。
Taiwan’s optoelectronic industry has developed for over 30 years. This industry has generated $66.667 billion USD total revenue in 2016 and its development has a significant impact on the Taiwan’s overall economy. Therefore, this study attempts to find out the factors that affect the development of Taiwan's optoelectronics industry. In this study, we discuss the long-term equilibrium relationship between Taiwan's photoelectric industry revenue and the macroeconomic variables by using Johansen cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables according to the Johansen cointegration test. The VECM model indicates that the revenues of the Taiwan’s optoelectronics industry show significant negative correlation with the exports of South Korea and significant positive correlation with the NASDAQ Composite Index. This implies that Taiwan's economic rival, South Korea, and the main export market conditions of the technology industry exerted significant influence over the Taiwan’s optoelectronics industry.