摘要

臺灣山地集水區地形陡峭且地質脆弱，加上每年颱風與豐沛雨量影響，致使崩塌事件頻傳，崩塌潛勢預測因而成為集水區災害防治與經營管理之重點項目。然由於影響崩塌發生之氣候與地文因子具高度時空變異性與不確定性，故如何於動態分析基礎上進行不同尺度之山地集水區崩塌潛勢模擬，即為值得探討之議題。有鑑於此，本研究以降雨型淺層滑動崩塌為對象，針對小面積蓮華池4 號與5號集水區，以及大面積石門水庫玉峰流量站上游集水區，以集水區土壤飽和度動態變化為連結因子，探討具崩塌潛勢動態分析能力之分布型水文-力學連結模式，於不同尺度集水區之應用方式與模擬效度。

在水文動態分析方面，本研究結果顯示若以分布型水文模式搭配連續性氣候資料進行模擬，在颱風與高降雨量時期之模擬效度明顯優於乾季，而土壤厚度與水力傳導度設定則為影響成果正確性之主要因素，且在小面積且地文因子均一性高之集水區，採用全域一致之地表覆蓋、土壤厚度、土壤屬性與水力傳導度設定即可達到80%至87% 模擬效度；而地文因子複雜程度高之大面積集水區，其模擬過程則必須考量地文因子時空變異性，始能達到較佳成效。除此之外，本研究亦發現集水區邊坡範圍之地形指標，與各時期邊坡土壤飽和度均具有高度線性正相關，此將有助於簡化複雜之水文分析流程。

在崩塌潛勢動態分析方面，本研究透過土壤飽和度空間分布動態變化連結無限邊坡模式，再透過蒙地卡羅重複模擬與機率轉換，以產出集水區不同時期崩塌潛勢動態變化。而將模擬結果與實際崩塌位置進行套疊檢核後，發現模擬結果約達62.1%至78.2%之動態模擬效度，且滑動面深度與地質參數設定均會造成顯著影響。總體而言，本研究流程具有超前性預測之能力，有助集水區經營管理者進行防救災分析與規劃，並能提升崩塌預測之即時性。

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網頁資料
Berry & Associates Spatial Information Systems, http://www.in novativegis.com/basis /Supplements/BM_Dec_02(2009/08/10瀏覽)
Google Earth Website, http://earth.google.com/intl/zh-TW/(2009/06/10瀏覽)
NRCS, http://soils.usda.gov/(2009/05/06瀏覽)
USGS, http://www.usgs.gov/(2009/05/06瀏覽)
工程地質探勘資料庫查詢系統，http://210.69.81.69/geo/frame/gsb88.cfm
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中央氣象局，http://www.cwb.gov.tw/(2009/08/10瀏覽)
風雨災害實驗室，http://tlcheng.twbbs.org/Hazard/study/operate/Chap05/ch0501.htm (2009/06/10瀏覽)