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研究生: 王盈婷
Wang, Ying-Ting
論文名稱: 勝場貢獻值之研究與應用-以超級籃球聯賽為例
Study and Appliance of Win Shares - Using Super Basketball League as Illustration
指導教授: 朱文增
Chu, Wen-Tseng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 運動休閒與餐旅管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Sport, Leisure and Hospitality Management
論文出版年: 2016
畢業學年度: 104
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 130
中文關鍵詞: 美國職業籃球聯賽超級籃球聯賽勝場貢獻值
英文關鍵詞: National Basketball Association, Super Basketball League, Win Shares
DOI URL: https://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202205097
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • 本研究以勝場貢獻值 (Win Shares, WS) 為理論基礎,探討第12季超級籃球聯賽(Super Basketball League, SBL) 七支球隊共117名球員的勝場貢獻值及相關問題。方法:首先藉由文獻探討方式分析目前被使用的各種評價球員模型及公式,說明其理論及運用的方式。接著從中挑選並解釋為何本研究使用勝場貢獻值作為理論基礎。進而分析2014年11月22日開打至2015年3月1日止,第12季超級籃球聯賽105場的例行賽賽事中,七支職業球隊各隊登錄並有上場紀錄之球員共117名,分析各球員對球隊的貢獻程度為何。接著說明勝場貢獻值於球隊的實際勝場數之間的關係為何。最後探討12季SBL年度各項獎項獲獎球員的勝場貢獻值內容。結論:研究發現部分球員之個人勝場貢獻值為負值,但因影響貢獻值的結果不只一項,很多個人能力很好的球員,勝場貢獻值不一定會高於能力較差的,原因在於能力好的球員他的隊友不見得夠好,球對整體戰績不佳,便會間接地影響到勝場貢獻值,反觀能力較差的球員,若是其隊友及球隊的整體表現有達到水準,同樣的會提升這名球員的勝場貢獻值。其次,SBL第10-12季的球隊勝場貢獻值與實際勝場之間的相關係數為0.802,表示相互之間具高相關性。以第10-12季7支球隊的勝場貢獻值為自變數與實際勝場之關係經由逐步迴歸分析得出結果顯示,勝場貢獻值對預測球隊勝利有顯著相關,有80%的相關性及62.4%的解釋力。以第10-12季7支球隊的團隊基本攻守數據為自變數(上場時間、兩分球命中數、兩分球出手數、兩分球命中率、三分球命中數、三分球出手數、三分球命中率、罰球命中數、罰球出手數、罰球命中率、進攻籃板、防守籃板、助攻、抄截、失誤、阻攻、個人犯規、得分),與勝場貢獻值之關係經由逐步迴歸分析得出結果顯示,主要影響貢獻值的為兩分球命中數,有高達94%的解釋力,相關係數則為97%,具高度相關。預測能力方面,利用貢獻值來預測NBA的兩個球季,迴歸出的結果分別為50.2%及52.6%的解釋力,相關係數則為70.5%及72.9%。

    The study uses win shares as the theory foundation, exploring the twelfth season of Super Basketball League, along with seven teams, 117 players in total and other related questions. Method: First of all, this study analyze the models of various types of players and the equations, which demonstrate the theory and how it was applied by using documentary analysis. Then we select a few and explains the rationale of applying win shares as the theory foundation for the study. Therefore the game stats from November twenty-second, 2014 to March first, 2015 was analyzed. According to the twelfth regular season of Super Basketball League, total one-hundred and seventeen players were registered by seven professional teams, and calculate how each player contributes to their team. Afterwards we explain the relation between win shares and the actual wins. Finally, the awarded players' win shares of the twelfth season of SBL were explored. Conclusion: The study finds some players have negative win shares, but due to the affecting factors of win share is more than one, many efficient players don't always have the higher win share than the less efficient players, the reason is the efficient players may have less efficient teammates, with an overall unsatisfactory record, which directly affects win share. On the contrary, if a less efficient player is on an average team with a satisfactory record, it'll also improve his win share. Secondly, the correlation coefficient between the win share and actual wins is 0.802 from the tenth to twelfth seasons of SBL. According to the gradual regressive analysis of these seasons, the seven teams' win shares as the independent variable along with the actual wins, the result shows, win share is indeed a siginificant factor of predicting the winning, with 80% of correlation coefficient, also 62.4% square multiple correlation. According to the tenth to twelfth seasons, the seven teams' basic team offensive and defensive statistics are independent variables (playing minutes, field goals made, field goals attempted, field goal percentage, three point field goal made, three point field goals attempted, three point field goal percentage, two point field goals made, two point field goals attempted, two point field goal percentage, free throws made, free throws attempted, free throw percentage, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, total rebounds, assists, steals, turnovers, blocks, personal fouls, points), win shares through the gradual regressive analysis obtains the results that indicate the win shares are mainly affected by two point field goals made, nearly 94% square multiple correlation, and the correlation coefficient is 97%. As for predictions, by using win shares to predict two seasons of NBA, regressive analysis values are 50.2% and 52.6% square multiple correlations; in addition, the correlations coefficients are 70.5% and 72.9%.

    中文摘要……………………………………………………………………………………...i 英文摘要……………………………………………………………………………………...ii 謝誌……………………………………………………………………………………….…. iv 目次……………………………………………………………………………………….…..v 表次…………………………………………………………………………………………...vii 圖次…………………………………………………………………………………………...xii 第壹章 緒論 13 第一節 研究背景與動機 13 第二節 研究目的 15 第三節 研究問題 16 第四節 研究範圍 16 第五節 研究限制 17 第六節 名詞操作性定義 17 第貳章 文獻探討 20 第一節 球員表現衡量模式 20 第二節 Win Shares之發展 36 第三節 Win Shares相關文獻 38 第参章 研究方法 42 第一節 研究流程 42 第二節 籃球基本攻守數據定義 43 第三節 研究資料選取 46 第五節 勝場貢獻值之計算 64 第肆章 結果與討論 77 第一節 SBL球員之勝場貢獻值 77 第二節 勝場貢獻值與實際勝場數之探討 89 第三節 年度獎項獲獎球員之貢獻 100 第伍章 結論與建議 111 第一節 結論 111 第二節 建議 117 引用文獻 119 一、中文部分 119 二、英文部分 119 附錄一 籃球基本攻守數據一覽表 122 附錄二 Win Shares公式一覽表 126

    一、中文部分
    中華民國籃球協會 (2014) 。超級籃球聯賽。取自中華民國籃球協會,網址http://sbl.basketball-tpe.org/files/11-1002-84.php?Lang=zh-tw
    林慧婷 (2006) 。邊界生產函數之應用-以超級籃球聯賽球員攻守技術為例 (碩士論文)。 國立臺灣師範大學,臺北市。
    林房儹 (2010,12月) 。美國運動產業產值分析與產業發展相關策略暨條例。以口頭形式發表2010年於各國運動產業產值與租稅優惠政策研討會。臺北市,臺灣。全文引自http://sports.bestmotion.com/Page/News2.aspx
    陳行健 (2006) 。運動產業之媒體策略研究—以美國職業籃球聯盟NBA為例 (碩士論文) 。銘傳大學,臺北市。
    陳佳郁、劉有德 (2010) 。數據會說話:球類運動技戰術分析方法探討。臺灣運動心理學報,17,49-68。
    教育部體育署 (2013) 。運動城市調查。臺北市:作者。
    程紹同 (1999) 。贊助狂飆NASCAR。廣告雜誌,17,86-90。
    吳禮釧 (2005) 。全球化潮流下美國國家籃球協會(NBA)發展及其在臺灣影響之研究(碩士論文)。國立屏東師範學院,屏東縣。
    二、英文部分
    Berri, D. J. (1999). Who is‘most valuable’? Measuring the player's production of wins in the National Basketball Association. Managerial and Decision Economics, 20(8), 411-427.
    Berri, D., & Schmidt, M. (2010). Stumbling On Wins: Two Economists Explore the Pitfalls on the Road to Victory in Professional Sports. Princeton, NJ: Financial Times Press.
    Basketball-Reference.com (2014)。Calculating Win Shares。Retrieved from http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html
    Basketball-Reference.com (2014)。Calculating Individual Offensive and Defensive Rating。Retrieved from http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html。
    Earnshaw Cook (1964). Percentage baseball. Baltimore : Waverly Press.
    Hollinger, J. (2003). Pro basketball prospectus: All-new (2003 ed.). Washington, DC: Brassey’s.
    Harbili, E., Harbili, S., & Yalcin, Y. G. (2011). Comparison of Efficiency Rating of Turkish and International Basketball Players Playing in the Turkish Basketball League According to Their Positions. World Applied Sciences Journal, 14(5), 745-749.
    James, B., & Henzler, J. (2002). Win Shares. Morton Grove, IL: STATS, Inc.
    Maymin, A. Z., Maymin, P. Z., & Shen E. (2013). NBA Chemistry: Positive and Negative Synergies in Basketball. International Journal of Computer Science in Sport, 12(2).
    Molik, B., Kosmol, A., Adamowicz, N. M., Laskin, J. J., Jezior, T., & Patrzalek, M. (2009). Game Efficiency of Elite Female Wheelchair Basketball Players During World Championships (Gold Cup) 2006. European Journal of Adapted Physical Activity, 2(2), 26-28.
    Oliver, Dean. (2003). Basketball On Paper. Washington, DC: Potomac Books, Inc.
    Rosenbaum, D. (2004). Measuring how NBA players help their teams win. Retrieved from http://www.82games.com/comm30.htm.
    Rust, D. M. (2014). An Analysis of New Performance Metrics in the NBA and Their Effects on Win Production and Salary. (Doctoral dissertation, University of Mississippi). Retrieved from http://thesis.honors.olemiss.edu/
    Stephen Righini (2013). Actual vs. Perceived Value of Players of the National Basketball Association. Retrieved from http://digitalcommons.bryant.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012&context=honors_mathematics
    Wakim, A., & Jin, J. (2014). Functional Data Analysis of Aging Curves in Sports. Retrieved from arXiv preprint arXiv: 1403.754

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