系統模擬應用於亞歐定期航線營運績效估計之研究

An Application of System Simulation to Estimate Operational Performance for an Asia-Europe Liner Service

董晉偉(Gin-Wei Dong) ； 盧華安(Hua-An Lu)

《中國土木水利工程學刊》 20卷4期 (2008/12) Pp. 523-537

https://doi.org/10.6652/JoCICHE.200812_20(4).0006

摘要

定期航商計算航線之營運成本與收入，常需等待各地分公司及代理行呈報後，才能進行核對審查，所費時日甚久。故航運公司一般以預估標準成本及提單系統之預估收入，初估各航線營運效益，其評估時效與正確性有待改善。本研究透過實務作業的訪談，建立航線經營評估之系統模擬流程，並蒐集實證航商之某亞／歐航線相關資料，利用套裝模擬軟體ARENA，進行隨機變數之函數配適分析，以及航線營運利潤之實證模擬。經與航商實際經營結果比較，測試結果顯示在95%信賴區間內，本研究之模擬結果可表示實務系統之經營效益。再者，本研究亦就航線經營要項之船舶因素、業務因素與港埠因素進行細部分析，以反映不同關鍵次要素在彈性變更其數值下，對營運利潤與航程日數之影響。研究發現系統模擬可協助管理者瞭解貨櫃航運之服務特性，不僅可應用於航線營運利潤之估計，亦能做為營運策略調整分析之參考。

關鍵字

定期航線 ； 系統模擬 ； ARENA ； 隨機變數

並列摘要

In calculating the actual running costs and revenues for service loops, liner shipping company must wait the provision of related data reported from its worldwide branches and agents. The whole transmission process till ready for audition normally spends much time. Thus, the headquarters preliminarily estimates the profits for every service by means of the standard cost bases and the rough revenues extracted from the lading system. The exactness and effectiveness of this approach require improving. Based on the interviews with the studied company, a procedure of systematic simulation for the route operations as the practical scheme is constructed. Meanwhile, the commercial package-ARENA is employed to match the optimal distributed functions of stochastic variables relative to the route management with the historical data of an Asia-Europe loop and then to conduct the simulation. Simulated results in comparisons with the real profits of the company reveal that this model can obtain the performance as the practical system within 95% of confidence interval. Moreover, three main influencing groups, i.e. ship, business and port factors, are also analyzed in detail. The findings of this research indicate that the systematic simulation is a helpful tool for managers to understand the service characteristics in container shipping. It can be applied not only to the estimation of the operational profit but also to being the reference in adjusting service policies.

並列關鍵字

liner service ； systematic simulation ； ARENA ； stochastic variable