新凱因斯前瞻性模型下釘住名目所得政策的優越性：以利率作為操作目標之探討

Is the Advantage of Nominal Income Targeting Valid in the New Keynesian Forward-Looking Model? a Target Zone Perspective under the Interest Rate Rule

方中柔(Chung-Rou Fang)

《經濟研究》 46卷2期 (2010/07) Pp. 217-243

https://doi.org/10.29765/TEI.201007.0002

摘要

本文嘗試在包含產出與通膨兩預期項之新凱因斯前瞻性模型下，以圖解的方式來探討：貨幣當局實施釘住名目所得目標區之貨幣政策，對各總體經濟變數的穩定效果。相較於Bean (1983)及West (1986)的結果，在利率法則之新凱因斯前瞻性模型下，本文發現：面對不同來源的衝擊，總合需求的實質貨幣彈性並非影響釘住名目所得指標之穩定效果的關鍵。此外，本文亦發現：假如從目標區觀點而言，民眾對產出變動之預期將扮演關鍵角色；此產出變動預期之力量，將加大產出之波動，使釘住名目所得貨幣政策之優越性未必成立。此不同之結論，或許可提供政府作爲實施貨幣政策之參考。

關鍵字

新凱因斯前瞻性模型 ； 釘住名目所得 ； 目標區政策 ； 隨機過程

並列摘要

Based on a New Keynesian forward-looking model embodying both future output and inflation expectations, this paper develops a graphical exposition to explain stabilizing performance of targeting nominal income relative to targeting interest rate from the viewpoint of target zones. Contrast to the outcomes of Bean (1983) and West (1986), with different shocks but stabilization through the non-conventional interest rate rule, we find that the elasticity of aggregate demand to real money balances is not the key factor in targeting nominal income. In addition, we discover that previous wisdom regarding the advantage of targeting nominal income stems from focusing on the level of nominal income. If the target zone of nominal income is considered, output expectations would generate a conflict effect to the realization of the nominal income band. Hence the advantage of targeting nominal income may not appear.

並列關鍵字

New Keynesian Forward-Looking Model ； Nominal Income Targeting ； Target Zone Policy ； Stochastic Processes

參考文獻

Ball, L. (1997), "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Paper No. 5952.

McCallum, B. T. (1997), "The Alleged Instability of Nominal Income Targeting," NBER Working Paper No. 6291.

Orphanides, A. (1999), "The Quest for Prosperity without Inflation," ECB Working Paper No.15.

Aizenman, J.,Frenkel, J. A.(1986).Supply Shocks, Wage Indexation and Monetary Accommodation.Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking.18,304-322.

Aizenman, J.,Frenkel, J. A.(1986).Targeting Rules for Monetary Policy.Economics Letters.21,183-187.