選民分立政府心理認知與投票行為：以2002年北高市長暨議員選舉為例

The Psychological Cognition for Divided Government and Voting Behavior: Lessons of Taipei and Kaohsiung Mayoral and City Councilor Elections of 2002

吳重禮(Chung-Li Wu) ； 徐英豪(Ying-Hao Hsu) ； 李世宏(Shih-Hug Lee)

《政治科學論叢》 21期 (2004/09) Pp. 75-115

https://doi.org/10.6166/TJPS.21(75-115)

摘要

近年來，府會分立的態勢逐漸成為我國各級政府普遍存在的現象。在此發展趨勢之下，「分立政府」(divided government)議題逐漸受到學界的關注與重視。本研究旨在探討分立政府體制的成因。詳言之，我國選民是否蓄意投票支持不同政黨的行政首長與民意代表，企圖使得行政部門與立法部門分別由不同政黨掌握而相互制衡，或者其投票行為是受到其他因素的影響，但卻無意間形成分立政府？為檢驗此核心命題，本研究以「2002年至2004年『選舉與民主化調查』三年期研究規劃(Ⅰ)：民國九十一年北高兩市選舉大型面訪案」資料，分析二○○二年台北與高雄市選民分權制衡心理認知與投票行為的關係。實證資料顯示，儘管分立政府心理認知對於分裂投票並無顯著影響，但是在考量分立政府心理認知與政黨認同的交互影響之下，抱持「制衡觀」立場的選民傾向於分裂投票，而排斥「制衡觀」的民眾則較易採取一致投票的行為；其中，以泛綠陣營認同者的差異最為顯著。在結論中，本文摘述研究要點，並提出未來的研究方向與建議。

關鍵字

分立政府 ； 分裂投票 ； 政治態度 ； 投票行為

並列摘要

The phenomenon of divided government seemingly has become the institutional norm at the various levels of governments in Taiwan. On this trend, scholars pay much attention to the issues of divided government gradually. This work aims at examining the causes of divided government. To put it in detail, we examine the contending perspectives: the voters prefer the system of checks and balances by divided partisan control of the executive and legislative branches, and intentionally votes for mayoral and city councilor candidates of different political parties; or, the electoral choice may have little to do with public preferences for divided or unified government but is heavily influenced by other determinants. In this study, we take advantage of the Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study, 2002 (TEDS 2002) survey data of the general preference for divided government and examine if vote choice is on the basis of strategic considerations in the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral and city councilor elections of 2002. The empirical results indicate that though the general preference for divided government has not effect upon on the split-ticket voting, considering the interactive variable of the general preference for divided government and party identification, we find that the voters who prefer the divided government tend to split-ticket voting. On the contrary, the voters who prefer the unified government tend to straight-ticket voting. In particular, there is a notable difference between the voters who identify with ”pan-green” alliance. In the conclusion, we review the major findings and limitations of this study.

並列關鍵字

divided government ； split-ticket voting ； political attitude ； voting behavior

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