後冷戰時期影響國際恐怖主義發生之結構因素：應用事件史分析法之探討

The Structural Factors Affecting the Occurrence of International Terrorism in the Post-Cold War Era-Applying Event History Analysis

李佳怡(Chia-Yi Lee) ； 黃旻華(Min-Hua Huang)

《東吳政治學報》 25卷3期 (2007/09) Pp. 1-49

https://doi.org/10.6418/SJPS.200709.0001

摘要

本文的研究目的在於利用事件史分析法找出後冷戰時期影響國家發生國際恐怖主義的主要因素，研究的時間範圍是1992年至2002年。利用ITERATE資料庫中這段時間的資料，本文建立了假設國家間有差異性的Cox共享脆弱性模型，估計各個因素對國際恐怖主義事件發生風險率的影響程度，並進一步將事件畫分成不同種類的恐怖活動，運用同樣的模型來檢視之，除了各項因素的影響力外，也探討國際恐怖事件在時間上的變化。
結果發現影響國家發生國際恐怖主義的因素主要有三個，分別是民主程度、中東地區與否、失業率，三者都對恐怖主義的風險率有正向影響力。此外，若將所有國際恐怖事件依攻擊手段和活動方式的不同，又可分成人質事件、爆炸事件、武裝攻擊事件、劫機事件、暗殺事件和威脅事件六大類，分別受不同因素所影響，其中影響人質事件最主要的因素是民主程度、失業率和種族齊一性；影響爆炸事件的因素則是都市化程度、國家硬體能力和陸地面積；而武裝攻擊事件則易發生在都市化程度較低和雖民主但尚不穩定的國家；至於和劫機事件的風險率有負相關的因素是國家硬體能力，正相關的則是人口和陸地面積；暗殺事件易發生在GDP成長率低、失業率高的國家；威脅事件則受民主程度和中東地區的正向影響。
此外，除了人質事件外，其餘五項事件多半集中在冷戰後三、四年，之後幾年的事件數則相對較少。而實際檢視資料後則發現，前幾年的事件數攀高是來自於特定恐怖團體所為，或是來自冷戰餘波的政治影響，而隨著冷戰的氣氛逐步消解、和平氛圍漸長，以及部分恐怖團體和政府和談成功後，恐怖事件在後幾年則顯著較少且較隨機。

關鍵字

國際恐怖主義 ； 恐怖事件 ； 事件史分析法 ； 風險率 ； Cox共享脆弱性模型

並列摘要

The purpose of this article is to apply event history analysis to determine what factors affect the occurrence of international terrorism in the post-Cold War era. The time period under observation is 1992 to 2002. Using an ITERATE data from this period, this paper builds Cox shared frailty models, which assume that there are differences between countries and estimate the effects of certain factors on the probability of incidents of international terrorism. Furthermore, incidents of terrorism are classified into six categories, and Cox shared frailty models are used to estimate the effects of different factors for each type. Variations in the numbers of incidents of international terrorism over time are also considered in this paper.
The results show that there are three factors affecting the occurrence of international terrorism: the degree to which a country is democratic, whether or not a country is in the Middle East, and the unemployment rate in a country. These three factors have positive effects on the probability of occurrences of international terrorism. Moreover, incidences of terrorism are classified into six categories: hostage situations, bombings, armed attacks, hijackings, assassinations, and threats. The factors affecting these categories differ. There are three factors that affect hostage situations: the degree to which a country is democratic, the unemployment rate, and the ethnic homogeneity of a country. The probability of bombings is affected by the degree of urbanization, the state's technological capabilities, and land area. The probability of armed attacks is more probable in countries with low levels of urbanization and unstable democracy. State technological capabilities have negative effects on the probability of hijackings, but land area and population size have positive effects. Assassinations occur more often in countries with low GDP growth rates or high unemployment rates. The probability of threats is positively affected by the degree to which a country is democratic and whether or not a country is in the Middle East.
Finally, most terrorist events occurred during the first three or four years after the end of the Cold War, with the exception of hostage situations. The numbers of events then declined after that period. According to the data, events occurred mostly during the early years of the post-Cold War era, due to specific terrorist organizations or the political aftermath of the Cold War. Because the tense atmosphere of the Cold War dissipated, a peaceful atmosphere developed, and some terrorist groups negotiated with countries successfully, the number of terrorist acts declined in the last years that we observed in the post-Cold War era.

並列關鍵字

international terrorism ； terrorist events ； event history analysis ； hazard rate ； Cox shared frailty model

參考文獻

Allison, Paul D.(1984).Event History Analysis: Regression for Longitudinal Event Data.Beverly Hills, Calif.:Sage.

Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M.,Bradford S. Jones(1997).Time is of the Essence: Event History Models in Political Science.American Journal of Political Science.41(4),1414-1416.

Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M.,Bradford S. Jones(2004).Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists.Cambridge, UK, New York:Cambridge University Press.

Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M.,Christopher Zorn(2002).Duration Models for Repeated Events.Journal of Politics.64(4),1069-1094.

Brannan, David W.,Andrew T.H. Tan. (ed.)(2006).The Politics of Terrorism: A Survey.London:Routledge.