直接投資對RCA動態效果之研究－台灣之實證

The Dynamic Effects of FDI on RCA-the Case of Taiwan

周文賢(Wen-Tsan Chou) ； 古金英(Jin-Ying Ku)

《Asia Pacific Management Review》 4卷3期 (1999/09) Pp. 271-288

https://doi.org/10.6126/APMR.1999.4.3.05

摘要

本文利用動態ARIMA轉移函數模式之模式辨認、參數估計、預計產生及模式診斷等步驟，以1975-1996年之時間序列資料從事實證檢定。驗證結果發現，外來直接投資對於台灣之RCA具有正向的影響，且於落差一期後仍具有相同的解釋力，但僅屬於邊際的正向影響效果。對外直接投資則對於RCA在靜態檢定上屬於負面的效果，隱含企業進行海外投資，為產生企業內貿易之母國與地主國間之輸出替代效果與逆輸入效果。單位產品出口利潤亦獲證為與RCA具顯著的正向統計相關，且對於RCA的解釋力最強。

關鍵字

外來直接投資 ； 對外直接投資 ； RCA ； 單位產品出口利潤 ； 動態效果

並列摘要

This study used the dynamic ARIMA transfer function model to identify, diagnose and estimate the model based on yearly time series data from 1975-96. From the dynamic perspective the empirical results show that inward FDI had had a positive impact on Taiwan's RCA, and it was still true while inward FDI was lagged one period, though the influential power was marginal. Nevertheless outward FDI had had a negative effects on Taiwan's RCA from a static viewpoint. The implication is that outward FDI produced the replace export effect and adverse import effect of the intra-industry trade behaviors. The explanatory variable ”the par earning of unit product exported” was also significantly positively related to RCA, and the impact was more powerful than that of the other explanatory variables.

並列關鍵字

Inward FDI ； Outward FDI ； Par Earning of Unit Product Export ； Dynamic Effects

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