國際足球積分影響因素分析

Analysis of the Factors Affecting FIFA World Rankings

張武業(Wu-Yeh Chang) ； 陳力瑋(Li-Wei Chen)

《大專體育學刊》 22卷2期 (2020/06) Pp. 114-127

https://doi.org/10.5297/ser.202006_22(2).0002

摘要

本研究目的是分析影響國際足球總會（International Federation of Association Football, FIFA）足球積分的總體經濟因素，並進一步探討各會員國國家足球隊表現的效率值。研究對象是FIFA於2019年6月公布各會員國的足球積分。研究方法是採用隨機邊界分析法，以該國每人所得、人口總數和政府支出占國內生產毛額比重等為解釋變數對FIFA足球積分作迴歸分析，並利用各會員國的足球積分與潛在積分的偏離程度來換算其效率值。結果顯示每人所得、人口總數和政府支出占國內生產毛額比重等三項變數皆正向顯著影響足球積分。在相同條件下，歐洲和南美洲國家足球隊的積分顯著高於其他洲別國家足球隊的積分，表示國家處於足球高度競爭的環境及國家特有的傳統足球文化也是影響足球實力的重要因素。有關效率值分析，在每人所得、人口總數和政府支出占國內生產毛額比重不如其他國家的情況下，部分非洲國家足球隊的效率值甚至高於歐洲和南美洲國家。本研究結論：足球運動是目前世界上影響力最大的體育項目，有關足球比賽的勝負或各國足球實力的分析，也引起學者的興趣。本研究檢定結果顯示以多元迴歸估計法確實會導致估計結果偏誤，意即支持本研究以隨機邊界模型估計法作為研究方法的合適性，隨機邊界模型的估計結果也呼應既有文獻的研究發現。因此，為提高我國整體足球實力，政府應致力發展經濟，提高國人所得水準、積極改善少子化問題與增加政府支出，特別是提高教育、醫療保健及社會福利支出比重。

關鍵字

隨機邊界分析法 ； 效率值 ； 總體經濟因素 ； 足球實力

並列摘要

The main purpose of this study was to investigate the macro-economic determinants of International Federation of Association Football (FIFA) scores, and to evaluate the efficiency of each member national football team. The research object of the study was the FIFA scores published in June, 2019. The stochastic frontier analysis methodology was used in this study. The FIFA scores were regressed on per capita income, population, and the ratio of government expenditures to gross domestic product (GDP). The deviation between FIFA score and its potential value was converted into the efficiency value. The empirical results showed that per capita income, population, and the ratio of government expenditures to GDP were significantly positively correlated with FIFA scores. The dummy variables of Europe and South America were also significantly positively correlated with FIFA scores, which means highly competitive environment and traditional football culture are also determining a country's football strength. Although per capita income, population, and ratio of government expenditures to GDP were lower than most of the countries, the efficiency values of some African countries were higher than the European countries. Soccer is the most influential sport in the world. The prediction of a soccer game or analysis of the strength of a nation's soccer team arouses research interests. The test results showed that the multi-variable regression methodology in biasness, confirming the validity of adoption of the stochastic frontier model methodology. Based on the empirical results, this study proposed following policy suggestions to enhance the football strength of Taiwan. First, the government should be dedicated to boost economies, and enhance per capita income. Second, the government should proactively solve the low-birthrate problem. Third, the government should increase spending, especially on education, healthcare, and social welfare. Besides, the national football team should learn from foreign football teams to improve the performance.

並列關鍵字

stochastic frontier analysis ； efficiency value ； macro-economic determinant ； football strength

參考文獻

許伯陽、周靈山（2002）。2002 世界盃足球賽比賽結果預測之研究。大專體育學刊，4 卷 2 期，79-88 頁。doi:10.5297/ser.200212_4(2).0007[Hsu, P.-Y., & Chou, L.-S. (2002). A study of prediction by the results of logistic regression on the game in 2002 FIFA World Cup. Journal of Physical Education in Higher Education, 4(2), 79-88. doi:10.5297/ser.200212_4(2).0007]

洪慶懷、邱奕文（2009）。臺灣足球發展之探討。輔仁大學體育學刊，8 期，261-272 頁。doi:10.29697/JPE.200905.0019[Hung, C.-H., & Chiu, Y.-W. (2009). Taiwan’s football of development with deficiencies and proposed. Journal of Physical Education Fu Jen Catholic University, 8, 261-272. doi:10.29697/JPE.200905.0019]

趙榮瑞、楊書銘（2008）。94 年全國運動會男子足球八強會內賽攔截成功次數之分析。大專體育學刊，10 卷 1 期，75-87 頁。doi:10.5297/ser.20 0803_10(1).0006[Chao, J.-J., & Yang, S.-M. (2008). An analysis of successful interceptions of top eight soccer teams in the 2005 Nationwide Games. Journal of Physical Education in Higher Education, 10(1), 75-87. doi:10.5297/ser.200803_10(1).0006]

林文斌（2015）。共同邊界與技術落差比率在運動領域之應用。體育學報，48卷4期，383-398頁。doi:10.3966/102472972015124804002[Lin, W.-B. (2015). An application of the metafrontier and technical gap ratio in sport. Physical Education Journal, 48(4), 383-398. doi:10.3966/102472972015124804002]

方進義、鄭志富、林欣慧（2013）。中華職棒野手球員的國籍、年資、球隊效果與換隊頻率對其績效之影響：1990 年到 2010 年。體育學報，46 卷 3 期，291-302 頁。doi:10.6222/pej.4602. 201309.0909[Fang, C.-Y., Cheng, C.-F., & Lin, S.-H. (2013). The impact of nationality, tenure, team and frequency of team switching on the batter’s performance in Chinese Professional Baseball League: 1990–2010. Physical Education Journal, 46(3), 291-302. doi:10.6222/pej.4602.201309.0909]