雙元勞動市場下產業結構轉型與人力需求演變

台灣在區隔的雙元勞動市場下，隨著經濟環境變遷，或者是相關政策的調整，產業結構的變化與不同勞動種類需求的消長及演變，到底呈現了什麼樣的面貌，是一個相當值得關心的議題焦點。特別是在高失業率已成為常態的年代，對於各種政策的施行到底會對勞動市場產生何種衝擊，更是主管機關所不可忽視的重要課題。本文利用－台灣可計算一般均衡模型，探討當勞動市場存在效率工資與競爭性工資之雙元市場情況下，政策及外在變動對經濟體系就業與失業的衝擊。本文在政策模擬部份，除考量最低工資的變化外，亦一併考量其他影響勞動市場之經濟變數，以期對最低工資政策之施行效果有較通盤之分析。本文之重要結論如下：一、總體經濟方面，總產值、實質國內生產毛額及家計單位勞動報酬，會隨最低工資的調升而增加；而在失業部份，亦會隨最低工資調漲而有所改善，顯示當薪資水準提升，將促使勞動者投入就業市場。二、在部門之發展方面，最低工資的調升會造成廠商成本負擔的增加，導致勞力密集產業所受之衝擊最大，不論產值或出口均隨最低工資的調漲呈現下滑的趨勢。三、各部門之勞動就業影響方面，初級勞動市場中，傳統製造業就業量會隨基本工資之調升而呈現下滑的狀態；而次級勞動市場中，傳統農林漁牧業、傳統製造業、食品加工、紙及塑橡膠製品製造業之就業量將會隨基本工資之調升而呈現下滑。四、兩種不同種類之勞動市場，不論為廠商因應或勞工轉職考量，對於最低工資的調整均會有相同的反應，差別僅在於程度上的變化。初級勞動市場薪資水準增加的幅度相對較次級勞動市場的增加幅度來的低，也因此使得初級勞動市場在就業量的變動上較次級勞動市場來的低。惟此部分結果均無考量外勞引進問題，若考量外勞之引進，對於初級與次級勞動市場之衝擊在程度上的差異將會有所改變。五、在最低工資變動的情況下，怠工被抓之機率及利率水準之增減對勞動市場就業的影響最大；而對失業量的影響部分，則屬利率水準增減變化之影響最大。

關鍵字

雙元勞動市場；效率工資；最低工資政策；可計算一般均衡

並列摘要

Both industrial structure and labor demand structure change in response to the implementation of policies. This paper examines how changes in labor policy may affect the level and structure of Taiwan's employment under dual labor market settings. We specify in a CGE model the features of dual labor market where skilled and unskilled occupations are assigned to correspond to primary and secondary markets. Efficiency wage is considered in primary labor market and the minimum wage is considered mainly in secondary market. We found that changes in the level of minimum wage will affect the wage level of primary market indirectly through the model and market mechanisms, and hence the employment and unemployment situations in the labor market. Factors such as labor supply and quit rate are also the key factors that need to be taken into consideration. In sum, raising minimum wage should have a positive effect on economic growth and a negative effect on unemployment; and the differential employment effects on sectors are similar for primary and secondary labor markets.