創新技術會受到政府政策與制度的影響而產生不同的擴散情況,所以,政策對太陽光電等新興的產業發展有著關鍵性的影響。本研究參考日本東京工業大學 Chihiro Watanabe 教授探討日本太陽光電產業發展的分析架構,經過必要之調整,估計出政府研發投入對台灣太陽光電產業未來發展的可能影響情況。本研究有別與以往多數研究只考量產量因素的單因子學習函數,不但採用多因子的學習函數來表達廠商產量與技術累積下的單位成本動態變化過程,且利用Gompertz 擴散函數估計出經由成本降低所帶動之商品價格下降及之後所增加之市場涵容量,做法上明顯有別於以往國內相關研究所採用的質性研究方式。 在一個良性循環的架構下,生產量增加後將導致太陽能電池價格的下降,進而再透過需求的增加促使生產量增加,長遠來看將更刺激廠商增加太陽光電的研發投入。除此之外,在技術具有外部性下,透過創新廠商的研發投入,可使其他廠商依吸收能力的不同產生大小不同的利益,進而增加本身研發投入或產量,創造出研發、市場成長、價格減少、研發外溢的良性循環。本研究以台灣太陽光電產業中之太陽能電池生產為例,構築這樣的良性循環架構,並據以推估在不同政策研發投入下,我國太陽能電池產業未來之動態發展情況,所得結果將有助於相關產業政策之制定。
Technological innovation can lead to prices decrease through learning effect, which can then be followed by a series of diffusion processes. That is, the eventual size of the market, or so called the carrying capacity, of a specific technology is dependent upon its cost. This thesis utilizes a multi-factor learning function to represent such a cost reduction process. Empirical estimates from our research framework are shown to fit to the annual PV production data during the past in the case of Taiwan. In a “virtuous cycle” process, an increase in the technology knowledge stock can contribute to an increase of the solar cell production. These increases will then lead to a decrease in solar cell production cost, and this decrease can then induce a further increase in solar cell production. The increase in solar cell production will stimulate the industry and firms to invest more in PV R&D, and the impacts of inter-firm technology spillover will also occur, eventually creating a “virtuous cycle” between R&D, market growth, price reduction and spillover. Following Dr. Chihiro Watanabe, we applied this “virtuous cycle” modeling framework to explore the diffusion and spillover of solar photovoltaic Industry in Taiwan. Estimates of the potential market size for solar cell firms in Taiwan are presented.