從選票區位結構試探影響2004年「和平公投」之相關因素

Exploring Factors Influencing the 2004 “Peace Referendum” in Taiwan: An Analysis of Aggregate Data at Township/District Level

黃偉峰(David W. F. Huang)

《臺灣民主季刊》 1卷3期 (2004/09) Pp. 73-98

https://doi.org/10.6448/TDQ.200409.0073

摘要

2004年「和平公投」之兩項命題的投票率因未達法定有權投票人數之一半而遭到否決。究其原委在於反對陣營極力杯葛和平公投，鼓吹其支持者拒領公投票。不過上述說法是建筑在政黨分歧足以解釋和平投的投票意願和取向之假設上。本文以2004年中央選舉委員會所公佈的公投票記錄為基礎，結合2001年各鄉鎮區級的人文區位資料及政府收入支出資料，試圖釐清影響和平公投的相關因素。本文發現下沉分歧的确足以解釋和平公投的投票率，但對於兩項公投命題贊成率的影響力則較弱。此外，本文亦發現教育程度和人口流動亦會影響公投投票率和贊成率。但是否如此，仍有待個體訪調資料交互檢證為宜。

關鍵字

和平公投 ； 公民投票 ； 政黨分歧 ； 人文區位推論誤謬 ； 逐步過歸分析法

並列摘要

Taiwan’s first nation-wide referendum, the “Peace Referendum,” was successfully held on 20 March 2004. However, its two propositions were rejected due to low voting rates that failed to meet the minimum threshold required by law, namely, one half of total eligible votes. One frequently-cited explanation for the failed referendum results is that opposition parties discouraged their supporters from participating in the “peace referendum.” However, this explanation is based on the simple hypothesis that the gap in party cleavage is sufficient to explain the turnout/approval rate of the referendum. Using voting records provided by the Central Election Commission, matched with aggregate data of revenue/expenditure and social conditions at the township/district level, in this paper, this paper attempts to verify the hypothesis above, while clarifying other significant factors that may have affected the results of the peace referendum. The findings show that the impact of party cleavage on the turnout rate for the referendum was both significant and dominant, although its effect on the approval rate of the two referendum propositions was less obvious. In addition to party cleavage, the results suggest that the higher the education level, the larger the proportion of net-immigrants, and the greater the concentration of Hoklo (Min-nan) people all led to a higher turnout rate for the referendum. Further examination of the survey data is required, however, in order to determine whether the above aggregate-level findings reflect the actual process of voting intention and orientation at the individual level.

並列關鍵字

peace referendum ； party cleavage ； ecological fallacy ； stepwise regression

參考文獻

中央選舉委員會(2004)。〈第十一屆正副總統選舉結果〉暨〈2004年公民投票結果〉。台北:中央選舉委員會。

中國時報(2004/01/18)

中國時報(2004/02/20)

內政部(2004)。公民投票法及其施行細則。台北:內政部。

王甫昌(2000)。國科會結案報告。台北:中研院社會所。