評量飛安管理成效艾略特波浪事故曲線的實務分析

An Elliott Accident Wave Curve Really Analyze for Measuring the Level of Airline Safety Management

鄭振坤

《危機管理學刊》 1卷3期 (2004/09) Pp. 49-60

https://doi.org/10.6459/JCM.200409_1(3).0006

摘要

航空公司發生飛安事故，雖然投入龐大資金執行改善計劃，是否有效，必須建立評量技術及實務分析，為本論文探討之目的，本論文緣自於本人於第八屆交通運輸安全研討會發表之論文「飛安事故的軌跡與危機因數偵測」，以華航發生飛安事故的歷史記錄做為研究樣本，首次推論出「艾略特波浪事故曲線」，將各航空公司的飛安事故的歷史記錄曲線與艾略特波浪理論結合，建立起：「艾略特波浪事故曲線（Elliott Accident Wave Curve）」，可運用於單一航空公司，評量各航空公司飛安管理，及改善成效的理想工具，該曲線軌跡含飛機製造廠商、航空公司經營管理、旅客行為、氣候、政府航空設施、及社會群體互動等的影響，若轉換成可辯認之波浪理論分析，將可從波浪行走的趨勢，評量各航空公司的飛安管理，及改善的成效，使經營者提前發現飛安管理的盲點，正確執行危機管理，修正不當的飛安改善投資計劃。

並列摘要

The airlines to fit the accident, though invest the huge fund to carry out the plan of improving, whether it is effective, must set up the technology and analysis for measuring the level of airline safety management, purpose to probe into this thesis. This thesis reason on the eighth communications and transportation safe thesis ”Fly accident cycle and crisis factor to detect” that seminar publish on me since, it is done in order to study samples that the historical record which fits the accident flies from the aircraft with China airlines, the inference produce ”An Elliott Accident Wave Cure” for the first time. The curve is combined with Elliott's wave theory and accident record per airlines, can apply the single airline for measuring the level of airline safety management, and improve the ideal tool of the effect. This curve orbit includes aircraft manufacturer, airline managing, passenger's behavior, weather, government's aviation facility and influence, that social groups are inter action etc., if change a wave theory that can be recognized to analyzing with the trend that can walk from the wave, which can to measuring the level of airline safety management and improved effect, make operator is it fly blind spot to set up management to find ahead of time, carry out the crisis to manage correctly, revise improper flying safety and improve the investment plan.

並列關鍵字

Flight Safety ； Fly accident cycle ； crisis factor ； Elliott Accident Wave Cure

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