既有山坡地社區環境地質災害風險指標之建立－以新北市新店區為例

Constructing Risk Index of Environmental-Geological Disaster in Aged Hillside Residential Communities-Taking Xindian Distinct as an Example

沈哲緯(C. W. Shen) ； 冀樹勇(S. Y. Chi)

《危機管理學刊》 11卷1期 (2014/03) Pp. 75-86

https://doi.org/10.6459/JCM.201403_11(1).0008

摘要

本研究採用3S（GPS、GIS、RS）技術，評估新北市新店區56個既有坡地社區周緣環境地質災害風險。風險模型以環境地質災害潛勢（或稱破壞機率）FP與後果指數CS之乘積函數構成。風險模式係利用判別分析法與貝氏定理求得破壞機率，並以評分表量化後果指數，加以結合計算風險指標，採用統計方法中的集群分析法進行風險分級，區分為第一類、第二類與第三類優先防治社區，提供主管機關進行詳細調查、監測管理及災害防治策略研擬之依據，期能防患於未然，減少災害發生時之損失。

關鍵字

遙測 ； 環境地質災害潛勢 ； 後果指數 ； 風險指標

並列摘要

With development of remote sensing(RS) and Geographical Information Systems(GIS) technique, the environmental-geological disasters in extensive area can be evaluated in a short time. In this study, a risk model constituted of failure probability(FP) and consequence score(CS) was developed. The proposed risk model is based on discriminant analysis and bayesian theorem to calculate FP. The CS is quantified in accordance with grade table of consequence factor. FP and CS can be combined to calculate the risk index in 56 Aged Hillside Residential Communities of Xindian Distinct. In addition, the use of statistical cluster analysis classifies the communities as high, medium and low risk classes. Based on the results from risk analysis, the several risky communities are investigated in order to verify the sensitive areas within those selected communities. Combined the risk assessment results with the investigated communities, current study provides risk maps to the authorities for the purpose of community-based disaster prevention programs and countermeasures development references.

並列關鍵字

Remote Sensing ； Susceptibility of Environmental-Geological disaster ； Consequence Score ； Risk Index

參考文獻

行政院農委會水土保持局 (2003). "水土保持技術規範"

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免費統計軟體R, 取自 http://www.r-project.org

96 年度臺北縣建築物總工程費單價參考表, 取自 http://www.taa.org.tw/front/02.php

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