分析階層程序法應用於坡地社區災害風險分析之研究－以臺北市山坡地老舊聚落為例

Study of Applying AHP on Slope-Land Community Disaster Risk Analysis-Obsolete Villages on Slope-Land of Taipei City as an Example

陳中豪(Chung-Hao Chen) ； 陳文福(Wen-Fu Chen)

《坡地防災學報》 6卷2期 (2007/09) Pp. 17-32

https://doi.org/10.29995/JSHR.200709.0002

摘要

臺灣本就地狹人稠，政府於民國38年撥遷來台後人口隨之激增，加上時值戰後生活已趨安定出生率大為增高，使得平原土地之利用趨於飽和，遂向山坡地開發。其後濫伐、濫墾、濫葬之情形日益嚴重，致使山坡地上的老舊聚落越蓋越密，早已不再是過去的恬靜山林，其中尤以臺北市為甚。山坡地本就屬敏感，其地質與土壤條件即使不蓋房子，也會因遭到地震或颱風而有土石流、落石、坍方、地滑…等現象或坡地災害發生。如果任意擁擠地蓋了簡陋平房，且多蓋在山凹、溝谷或陡峭邊坡等危險區位，若其基地屬於軟弱岩盤、順向坡之坡脚…等不良地質區，又遭人濫挖、濫填、無排水設施、上方住戶任意整地建屋…等，必會造成山坡建物潛在的危險。一般常見之潛在因子包括：地勢區位不良、地質條件不佳、周圍土地被超限利用與周圍坡地安全維護不良…等。
本研究用採分析階層程序法(The Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)將臺北市山坡地老舊聚落災害風險度評估因子分為4大評估要項（邊坡穩定性、擋土設施穩定性、排水系統穩定性與建物穩定性）與15項評估項目兩層之層級架構，並藉由專家問卷調查方式，以建立其災害風險度評估因子之評估準則與其因子之權重值，所得結果可提供現場調查人員與政府機關做為防災避難及工程整治評估判斷之依據。

關鍵字

老舊聚落 ； AHP ； 評估準則 ； 權重值

並列摘要

Dialed moved comes to Taiwan the population along with the government after 1949 to increase sharply, in addition when postwar causes the birth rate markup, so that use of the plain land tends to be saturated, then to development slopes, after that the denudation, the estrepement, overflow to bury the situation to be day by day serious, causes on the building is crowded more and more for obsolete villages on slopes, was already not the past tranquil wooded mountain, and especially take as really in Taipei. The slopes is the sensitive area, It's geology and soil condition, even if in does not cover situation of under the house, Also to occurs debris flow, Falls the stone, landslip or the land on slopes disaster, because of will encounter the earthquake or the typhoon; If built houses, which covers in the dangerous position as also as the mountain gap run-off ditch, the steep side slope dangerous position, and its ground belongs to the weak laccolith, along to the slope toe of slope and so on bad geology, and suffers artificial overflows to dig overflows to fill, the suitable drainage facility, place above the inhabitant preparation of soil not to construct, can create on the mountain building's potential hazard. Generally the common building of Obsolete Villages on Slopes latent factor includes: The topography position bad, the geological condition not good, periphery the land is surpassed limits the use and periphery the land on slopes safe maintenance bad. This study explored with The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the disaster risk appraisal factor for obsolete villages on slopes in Taipei assess factor divide into to gather slope and stability, block soil facility stability, drainage system stability and build thing stability 4 heavy to is it take item and 15 assessment project two layers of level structure to assess, And in questionnaire investigation way of the expert, establish the appraisal criterion and the weight value, take provides the spot investigation personnel and the Governmental agency does as the disaster prevention seeks asylum and judgment of basis the project improvement appraisal.

並列關鍵字

Obsolete villages ； AHP ； Appraisal criterion ； Weight value