摘要
少子化衝擊已全面喚醒台灣高等教育的危機意識，同時，教育部規劃自107年起，重大計畫與獎補助將會要求提出執行成效佐證與說明。因此，校務研究一時蔚為風潮，而校務資訊的上網公開、透明，亦顯示各大學對於校務發展的重視程度與未來願景。本研究團隊以申請入學交叉查榜的全國性資料為例，篩選出與本校相關之資訊，用以建立馬可夫轉移矩陣，並藉此計算107學年度申請入學的轉移機率，以及推估可能就讀人次。研究結果顯示，透過此一分析模式可瞭解學校「競爭紅利」分布狀況，並據以劃分出相對性之「就讀他校／本校意願皆高」、「就讀他校意願高」、「就讀他校／本校意願皆低」、「就讀本校意願高」等象限，可提供學校未來整體招生策略擬定之參考。
並列摘要
The trend towards fewer children wakes the awareness of higher education environment in Taiwan these years. Since 2018, the application of major programs of the Ministry of Education will be asked for evidence and instructions. That's the reason of why institutional research of university are so popular today. By the way, the reveal of institutional information shows the vision of institutional development. This research selected the data which to apply for admission to PCCU in all universities, to establish a markov transition matrix for forecasting the possibility of application of PCCU in 2018. The result shows the advantage of PCCU in competition, and divide into 4 quadrants which are 〞high possibility of others/ PCCU〞, 〞high possibility of others〞, 〞low possibility of others/ PCCU〞, and 〞high possibility of PCCU〞. That could be taking as reference for the strategy in the future.
延伸閱讀
- En, T. T. H. (2021). 股票市場與ESG報酬之動態分析：馬可夫狀態轉換回歸法之應用 [doctoral dissertation, National Chengchi University]. Airiti Library. https://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202101665
- 林萱佳（2011）。馬可夫前瞻情境規劃方法論建構之研究〔碩士論文，國立中央大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0031-1903201314431127
- 樊鵬（2016）。應用位移量測技術識別預力梁預力之可行性研究〔碩士論文，國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201603577
- 吳尚明（2016）。OECD 成員國之失業率預測---馬可夫轉換模型之應用〔碩士論文，國立臺北大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0023-1303201714252237
- 高櫻芬、黃健輝、湯偉廷（2004）。預測匯率危機的可能性－馬可夫轉換模型與二元選擇模型預測能力之比較。台灣金融財務季刊，5(4)，59-76。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=16079256-200412-5-4-59-76-a