以韋伯分布與加速壽命實驗評估汽車電子產品的壽命

Using Weibull Distribution and Accelerated Life Time Test to Evaluate Life Time of an Automotive Electronic Product

許書凱(Shu-Kai Hsu)

指導教授 ： 黃崇興

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/商學組/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.10035

摘要

近年因應石油危機、地球暖化，節能與環保議題愈被重視。且隨著高齡化社會的到來，高齡人口照護及交通擁擠問題，為了改善交通安全及運輸效率，達到環保、節能、舒適、安全、減輕環境負擔的交通環境，使得車輛朝向智慧化、數位化、電子控制化、人性化發展。
Strategy Analytics指出，全球汽車電子產值將由2013年的1975億美元成長至2015年的2388億美元。根據拓墣產業研究所預估，至2020年前都將維持平均8.5%的複合年均成長率(CAGR)。全球IT業者都在為低毛利傷透腦筋，汽車電子產品的巨大商機，讓大家紛紛積極布局發展汽車電子產品，希望將汽車產業發展成為繼3C（電腦Computer、消費電子Consumer electronics、通訊設備Communication devices）之後的第四個C（Car）產業。
相較於3C電子產品，汽車的單價高出許多。再者車輛承載至少一名人員，任何汽車電子零組件造成的失效，所引致的生命、財產損失，遠高於3C電子產品。因此，汽車電子產業對品質的要求也遠高於3C電子產品。由於汽車生命週期長，車廠要求汽車電子產品供應商要能滿足長期供貨(Longevity support)的要求。原本3C電子產品供應商的短期大量製造生產出貨，以經濟規模降低成本的獲利模式，在汽車電子產業不一定適用。
當一個3C電子產品供應商，欲進入汽車電子產業，如何評估失效成本，如何估計產品壽命以符合客戶要求是一個課題。本研究以韋伯分布及加速壽命實驗來評估一個汽車電子產品的壽命，並討論個案W公司汽車電子事業處由後裝AM產品供應商轉型成前裝OEM供應商的過程中，如何改善品質以符合汽車電子高品質要求的經驗。期能作為同業在從事汽車電子產業之參考，藉此改善設計與流程，以符合汽車電子產業之高品質要求，提升產業之國際競爭力。

關鍵字

汽車電子 ； 失效函數 ； 產品壽命 ； 韋伯分布 ； 亞瑞尼斯方程式

並列摘要

Recently due to oil crisis and global warming, energy saving and environmental issues receive much more attentions. In order to improve traffic safety and transportation efficiency, and to build an traffic environment which is environmental friendly, energy saving, comfortable, safe and with reduced environmental loading, vehicle is developed to be smart, digital, electronic controlled, ergonomic.
Strategy Analytics points out, the global annual value of automotive electronics products will increase to 238.8 billion USD in 2015 from 197.5 billion USD in 2013. According to estimation by TRI (Topology Research Institute), automotive electronics industry will keep CAGR(Compound Annual Growth Rate) to be around 8.5% by 2020. The big opportunity of automotive electronics products attracts global IT vendors which suffer from low gross margin. IT vendors aggressively entry automotive electronics industry, and hope automotive electronics products will be 4th C industry after previous 3C (Computer, Consumer electronics, Communication).
Compared to 3C products, the unit price of a car is much higher. And a vehicle carries more than one passenger; any malfunction results from defect of electronic component in a car will lead to much higher life and monetary loss than 3C products. Hence the quality requirement of automotive electronics industry is much higher than 3C electronics industry. In addition, due to long life time of a vehicle, car makers ask suppliers to provide longevity support. The profit model of 3C electronics products vendors, economy of scale to lower cost by mass production and shipment in a short period, may not be applicable in automotive electronics industry.
If a 3C electronics products vendor would like to entry automotive electronics industry, how to evaluate failure cost and product life time to meet customer’s requirement should be important topics for the new entry vendor. This study simulates the life time based on Weibull distribution and accelerated life time test. And this study investigates the quality improvement experience of automotive electronics business unit of W-company, which is transformed from an AM supplier to an OEM supplier. It’s expected that this study can be a reference to other automotive electronics manufacturer in Taiwan for improving the design and process to meet the high quality requirement. And the industry would be upgraded to fight against world competition.

並列關鍵字

Automotive industry ； Failure function ； Product Lifetime ； Weibull distribution ； Arrhenius equation

參考文獻

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