電腦模擬大規模流行性感冒防疫措施

人類感染高病原性的Ａ型流行性感冒病毒，可能會致命，而Ａ型Ｈ５Ｎ１禽流感病毒最近將可能在人類間爆發傳染。我們已在電腦上實作大規模隨機性傳染病模型，模擬新型流行性感冒病毒的傳播。在模型中我們把模擬範圍設定為國家等級，包括了全國的地理行政區資料，以及官方統計的人口組成結構，並考慮了生物特性等相關因素。除了把原有的分離事件隨機模擬效能提升，我們進一步實作了各種防疫措施，可以有效率地、動態地介入模擬。這些防疫措施在實際防疫政策中扮演重要的角色，可以在疫情爆發初期即展開圍堵和緩和的策略，並精確地掌握模擬中每個週期、每個生物體的狀態。目前所有的運算皆可在桌上型電腦的運算資源中完成，我們的系統保留了彈性和擴充性，將來可以進行更大規模和更多樣性的人對人傳染病模擬。

關鍵字

模擬；傳染病；流行性感冒；防疫

並列摘要

Highly pathogenic influenza A viruses are life-threatening, and avian strains of influenza virus A (H5N1) become readily transmissible among humans. Computer simulations of large-scale stochastic models to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus have been constructed in various previous work, including nationwide demographic data, population features, and biological factors. In this thesis, besides speeding up the previous discrete event stochastic simulations, we further implement various intervention strategies efficiently and dynamically. These intervention strategies play an important role of pandemic influenza prevention and control. Various trials including containment and mitigation have been simulated for early stage of outbreak. Great precision to the status of each individual in each period can be traced, through the simulation process using only desktop computational resources. Flexibility and scalability of our system are considered for larger simulation scale and other human-to-human transmissible infectious diseases.

並列關鍵字

simulation ； infectious disease ； influenza ； intervention

參考文獻

[2] L. Simonsen, C. Viboud, B.T. Grenfell, J. Dushoff, L. Jennings, M. Smit, C. Macken, M. Hata, J. Gog, M.A. Miller, and E.C. Holmes. The genesis and spread of reassortment human influenza A/H3N2 viruses conferring adamantane resistance. Mol Biol Evol, 24(8):1811-1820, 2007.

[5] J.K. Taubenberger and D.M. Morens. 1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics. Emerg Infect Dis, 12(1):15-22, Jan 2006.

[6] O. Diekmann, J.A.P. Heesterbeek, and J.A.J. Metz. On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 28(4):365-382, Jun 1990.

[7] M.G. Roberts, M. Baker, L.C. Jennings, G. Sertsou, and N. Wilson. A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical region. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 4(13):325-330, 2007.

[9] M. Nuno, T.A. Reichert, G. Chowell, and A.B. Gumel. Protecting residential care facilities from pandemic influenza. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(30):10625-10630, 2008.

國際替代計量

電腦模擬大規模流行性感冒防疫措施

全文下載

主題瀏覽