我國再生能源發展之情境分析與發電量預測

減碳已成為近年來全球共同的目標，歐盟等國早已訂立目標，期望2020年溫室氣體排放量比1990年排放量降低20%，2030年與2050年的目標則分別降低1990年排放量的40%與80%。以我國而言，立法院已於2015年6月通過「溫室氣體減量及管理法」，期望2050年溫室氣體排放量降至2005年的50%以下。此外，由於2011年3月11日於日本發生的福島第一核電廠核災，使國內許多人傾向將核能電廠逐步除役，而政府也規劃在2025年時達到無核家園的目標，是以提出多項規劃，期望促進民間發展再生能源以取代核能。為達成減碳及非核家園目標，我國發展再生能源是必然的，尤其我國缺乏自然資源，仰賴國外進口之能源比例高達98%，時常因國際能源價格的波動，導致我國能源價格之不穩。而我國為四面環海的國家，全年有超過半年以上的時間吹東北季風，沿海、近海及離島地區風力充足，平均風速皆超過4 m/s，十分具有發展風力發電的潛力。此外，台灣位於亞熱帶地區，日照時間長，陽光偏斜角度小，也相當適合發展太陽光電。緣上，本研究以我國各種發電機組歷年裝置容量及容量因數為依據，應用時間序列分析方法中之自我迴歸模型，預估該些機組之發電量。本論文並依據我國政府所規劃「千架海陸風力機」、「陽光屋頂百萬座」及「地面型PV系統可用地」等再生能源發展計畫，以該些計畫達成率之不同設定情境，進行情境分析，探討再生能源對我國未來發電的影響。透過數值分析，本研究發現，當前述三個計畫於2030年分別達成80%、80%及50%時，可使我國用電需求穩定，達成非核家園目標。

關鍵字

再生能源；裝置容量；發電量；時間序列分析；自我迴歸模型；情境分析

並列摘要

Carbon reduction has been a common objective all over the world in recent years. European Union has set a target of 20%-cut on 1990 level in carbon emissions by 2020, and 40%-cut by 2030 and at least 80%-cut by 2050. In Taiwan, the Legislative Yuan passed a “Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act” in June 2015 aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 50% of 2005’s level by 2050. To achieve the goal, the development of renewable energy cannot be avoided. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster occurred on 11 March 2011 reassures the Government to abolish nuclear energy by 2025 and develop renewable energy instead. Among all types of renewable energy, wind energy and solar energy are considered appropriate and to be developed in large scales in the coming years. To examine whether the development of renewable energy based on the Government’s planning can really replace nuclear energy, a study is carried out in this thesis. The study first considers the energy generated by all kinds of power units for the past few years in Taiwan to establish an autoregressive time series forecast model. The capacity factors are considered therein. Afterwards, different achieving rates of “Thousand Wind Turbines,” “Millions Rooftop PVs” and “Ground-Mounted PV Systems” projects, all proposed by the Government, are considered to estimate the amount of renewable energy that would be generated yearly by wind powers and solar panels. Based on the results of several scenario analyses, it is concluded that when the above-mentioned three plans are achieved 80%, 80% and 50% respectively by 2030, the electricity supply of Taiwan will be stable and the abolishment of nuclear-power plants can be justified.

並列關鍵字

Renewable energy ； Installed capacity ； Generating capacity ； Time series analysis ； Autoregressive models ； Scenario analysis

參考文獻

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Accessed on: November 26, 2016.

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Accessed on: December 2, 2016.

[15] C. Zhang, W. Gao, S. Guo, Y. Li, T. Yang (in press), “Opportunistic Maintenance for Wind Turbines Considering Imperfect, Reliability-Based Maintenance,” Renewable Energy. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.10.072

國際替代計量

我國再生能源發展之情境分析與發電量預測

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