高速鐵路場站與區域發展之互動研究

Research on Interactions between High-Speed Rail Facilities and Regional Development

簡書廷(Chien, Shu-Ting)

指導教授 ： 許聿廷

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201703694

摘要

運輸系統的建設與營運在一段時間後可能反饋於區域發展，並進一步衍生為場站和其周邊土地使用之間複雜的動態互動過程。然而，此一過程在現行運輸規劃中卻少有討論或相當程度地簡化。是以，本研究試圖探究軌道系統與區域發展在時空交互影響之下的動態關聯，並提出一兩階段計量經濟模型分析架構，分別採用考量變數內生性的聯立方程模型與捕捉區域異質性的追蹤資料分析進行實證分析。
本研究針對臺灣高速鐵路系統中位於郊區，且未與市中心傳統鐵路車站共構的五個站進行分析，期望捕捉軌道系統與區域發展互動的時間延滯效應，並同時界定出各場站的影響範圍。根據所估計的計量模型，本研究提出的三個理論假說經實證分析均成立，包含：(1)軌道系統與區域發展形成一正向互動關係；(2)互動中存在時間延滯效應；(3)各站之間的影響範圍存在差異，且可能跨越縣市界線。對於軌道系統與區域發展之動態互動過程，相較於過去研究的概念性敘述，本研究除了建構一計量分析架構以衡量此互動關係，並同時界定出各高速鐵路場站對於周遭的影響範圍。據此，後續臺灣高速鐵路之運量評估修正及相關車站特定區開發情況分析可基於本研究結果所顯示之軌道系統與區域發展動態互動關聯做更深入的探討。

關鍵字

運輸系統與土地使用互動關聯 ； 聯立方程模型 ； 追蹤資料分析 ； 時間延滯效應 ； 影響圈

並列摘要

This research seeks to explore the dynamics of spatiotemporal interactions between a high-speed rail project and the surrounding land-use patterns for high-speed railway stations, which is often lack of considering dynamics between the stations and surrounding areas. Thereby, it may provide insights into ridership forecasting and even regional development. An integrated framework is proposed to analyze the dynamic process of transportation-land-use evolution which involves spatiotemporal interactions in two-stage research, where a simultaneous equation model and a panel data analysis model are developed, respectively.
This study focus on the five Taiwan High-Speed Railway (THSR) stations located in suburban areas and try to capture spatiotemporal interactions with time-lagged effects and delimit influence scope for each station. Based on the results of model estimation, three hypotheses are verified: (i) the interactions between THSR facilities and regional development form a positive cycle; (ii) the time lag effects associated with the interactions exist; and (iii) the influence scope of a THSR station varies across different stations and can exceed the boundary of the associated city or county.
The research findings highlight the spatiotemporal dynamics of interactions between high-speed rail facilities and regional development and provide insights into THSR ridership forecasting and the relevant application contexts for urban planning.

並列關鍵字

transportation-land-use interaction ； simultaneous equation model ； panel data analysis ； time-lagged effect ； influence scope

參考文獻

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