台灣位於西太平洋地區,每年夏秋之際,常受太平洋低壓帶影響所生成的颱風影響,帶給台灣豐沛之雨量,而近年來的極端氣候造成颱風生成進而侵台的事件逐年增加,導致台灣各地淹水事件頻傳,也影響人民生命財物的損失。 隨著近年工商業發展蓬勃,人民的生活品質也逐漸提升,對於生命財產的重視也不例外,災害對於人民生命財產的衝擊更是最嚴重的一部份,而對於災害發生的影響與評估,除了靠主動的工程方式、平時的防災演習、救災人員的機動訓練來降低災害的發生外,災害發生前的防災預警與風險分析更是重要的一環。 本研究係針對高雄市研究區域內之社會發展相關統計透過分析與因子轉化成脆弱度指標。並利用六種不同重現期距(5年、10年、25年、50年、100年及200年)與近年造成高雄嚴重淹水之四場颱風事件(潭美颱風、海棠颱風、莫拉克颱風、凡那比颱風)之淹水模擬結果,進行淹水危險度指標計算。最後再利用脆弱度與危險度兩項指標,分析研究區各村里於事件中之風險指標,進而有利政府了解於各事件中哪些地區是處於高風險之狀態,應該加強防災或籌設更多的資源來預防災害。 最後利用風險指標加入預兆得分之判斷決定是否做災害預警之考量,即災害事件發生當下判斷各地區是否該發報預警,進而更有效率分配人力資源救災與物資,達到保護人民生命財產之功效。
Taiwan is on the typhoon path of the west Pacific Ocean Region. During summer and autumn season, typhoons always bring heavy rainfall. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding and result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development in recent years, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So theimpact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, in addition to works by proactive way, including the disaster prevention and safety drills, mobile training relief workers to reduce the occurrence of disasters, and flood warning system, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods(5 years, 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, 100 years and 200 years) and four typhoon events(Tarmi, Haitang, Morakot and fanapi typhoon) which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by combining the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas. The threat score of flood risk can improve the accuracy in flood warning, hence resources and relief supplies can be efficient allocated to protect lives and property during the disaster occurs.