直銷業在大陸市場之競爭策略

改革開放後的中國大陸，致力於經濟發展，重視吸引外資的政策制定，但直銷業進入大陸後，這個產業讓三方主體，政府、直銷企業與民眾之間產生劇烈的連鎖效應。本研究回顧直銷業在全球發展的經驗概況後，將直銷業進入中國市場的演進以1998年（禁止直銷年）為劃分，分別探討直銷業在中國政府禁止直銷之前的市場狀況與禁止直銷之後各大直銷企業的轉型策略。 2005年9月中國政府實踐了對WTO的承諾，再度立法開放直銷，自此直銷業在大陸市場又進入了另一個競爭態勢。政府從嚴開放的立法態度下，本研究模擬地方執法寬鬆或嚴格的情境，探討以雅芳和安利為首的單層、多層路線之爭，兩者如何分別在拿牌、服務網點、獎金制度、產品策略與人員上作競爭。並進一步以不完全訊息之動態賽局模型模擬出，政府執法嚴格之下，雅芳有絕對優勢。而在政府執法較鬆的情況下，雅芳則應該視安利的轉向完全單層的機率有多高，再決定其最佳策略。

關鍵字

直銷業；單層次；多層次；不完全訊息之動態賽局

並列摘要

After the reformed and open policy, China is devoted to economic development and is placing a strong emphasis on attracting foreign capital. However, resulting from the entry of direct selling into China, the tripartite relationship between the government, the direct selling enterprise and the populace is experiencing a severe chain-reaction. After reviewing the worldwide development experience of direct selling industry, this research took 1998 (the year of ban against direct selling in China) as a pivotal year to study the market condition before the government’s ban, and the transition strategies adapted by the major direct selling enterprises after that year. In September 2005, China fulfilled the commitment to the WTO by legislation on opening direct selling once again. Since then, the direct selling industry has been entered into a renewed competitive stage in China’s market. Under the strict legislative attitude by the government, this research simulates the provincial enforcement of the law either strictly or loosely. A simulation sought to show the racing between Avon and Amway-leaders in single level and multi-level industries respectively- in the areas of licensing, service network, commission structure, product strategy and sales representatives. Furthermore, based on the suppositions gained from dynamic games of incomplete information, Avon would possess absolute competitive superiority if the government enforces the law strictly. However, if the government enforces the law loosely, the best strategy for Avon should depend on the probability of Amway’s transition to pure single-level model.