北京與華府的後金融危機關係

China-U.S. Relations After The Great Recession

陳奕儒(Yi-Ru Chen)

指導教授 ： 林中斌

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2011.00391

摘要

2007年3月美國次級房貸危機與2008年9月雷曼兄弟宣告破產，導致1930年代「經濟大蕭條」以來最嚴重的「經濟大衰退」(2007年12月至2009年6月)。2011年危機仍在延續，例如歐債及美債。美國雖然已脫離經濟大衰退，卻受創嚴重而經濟仍嚴峻。同時，金融危機亦衝擊中國，但影響較小。中國甚至在這段時間取得多項經濟新突破。華府與北京一消一長之際，使得金融危機成為中美關係新的轉捩點。本研究即探討金融危機對美國、中國、中美關係的影響。
本研究以2007年迄今為時間主軸。研究主體為美國與中國，其中以官方為主。首先，探討中美在金融危機期間的國內對策。其後，以雙邊、區域、全球為分析層次，從共識與合作、分歧與衝突觀點檢視中美關係。最後歸納政治、經濟等層面的影響。故本研究共計八章。第一章為緒論、第八章為結論外，前半部為第二至四章，探討北京與華府在金融危機期間國內與雙邊受到的衝擊、對策、實效；後半部為第五至七章，探討金融危機後迄今北京與華府在雙邊、區域、全球的關係。
本研究結論為金融危機使華府與北京實力此消彼長，但卻催化中美全面、具體合作並積極協調分歧。美國實力減弱卻不致跌落谷底；中國實力增強卻不致一柱擎天。在雙邊關係上，北京與華府深諳合作符合雙方最大利益並積極處理分歧。在區域關係上，北京主導權增加而華府影響力長期將遞減；雙方在亞太分歧增加卻不致決裂。在全球關係上，華府一向鼓勵而北京轉為積極參與國際建制。綜上所述，北京對美運用「鬥而不破」原則更臻嫻熟靈活；華府亦逐漸調整對華政策。最後，台灣已非中美關係棘手問題，北京與華府不會因小失大。台灣須夕惕若厲、先為不可勝。

關鍵字

中美關係 ； 金融危機 ； 經濟大衰退

並列摘要

The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in March 2007 and the financial crisis in September 2008, which led to the worst Great Recession since the Great Depression in 1930’s. The crises still affect global economy, including the European sovereign debt crisis and the U.S. national debt crisis. Although the U.S. has got rid of the Great Recession, its economy recovery remains slowly. In the meanwhile, the financial crisis had less impact on China, which passed through the crisis easily. On the contrary, China has gained several economic breakthroughs after the crisis. The financial crisis has been an important turning point, which may have result in the U.S. decline and China growth (the power transition between the U.S. and China). This study discusses the effect of the financial crisis to the U.S., China, and China-U.S. relations.
The time range of this study began from 2007 to 2011. The U.S. and China were the main research target countries. At first, the study compared the government policy for the crisis in the U.S. and in China respectively. Second, the study discussed China-U.S. relations from bilateral, regional, and global perspectives. In addition, through the concept of cooperation and difference. Finally, the study generalized the effect of politics and economy to China-U.S. relations. As a result, this study has 8 chapters. Chapter 1 is an introduction of this thesis and chapter 8 is the conclusion. Chapters 2-4 are about the impact, resolution, and effect of the U.S. and China during the financial crisis. Chapters 5-7 are about the bilateral, regional, global relations of the U.S. and China after the financial crisis.
The conclusion of this study is the financial crisis probably led the U.S. decline and China growth; however, that promoted the comprehensive and practical China-U.S. cooperation and positively coordinated differences. The U.S. has declined but still the most powerful country; China has been growing but still a developing country. On the bilateral relations, the U.S. and China know cooperation is the best way for both common interests. Moreover, they positively coordinate their disagreements. On the regional perspective, the influence of China has increased but the U.S. will decrease. Despite their disagreements in Asia-Pacific has raised, both sides will not break the relationship. On the global aspect, the U.S. always encourages China to participate in international affairs, and now China has turned more actively. In conclusion, China uses the principle of “struggle without breaking the relationship” to the U.S. that is more sophisticated. Besides, the U.S. also progressively adjusts the China policy. In the end, Taiwan issue has gradually not been the most important topic in China-U.S. relations. The U.S. and China will put their common interests in the first place. Taiwan must do what Sun Tzu said “The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.”

並列關鍵字

China-U.S. relations ； the Great Recession ； the financial crisis

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