台灣公教人員保險基金的績效分析與投資政策之探討

Analysis of the Public Servants Insurance Fund Performance and Its Investment Policy

邱薇羽(Wei-Yu Chiu)

指導教授 ： 陳登源

淡江大學/管理學院/管理科學研究所碩士班/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2011.00901

摘要

台灣公教人員保險基金的資產配置一直是的一項重要課題。隨著基金規模持續不斷成長，其運用日益重要。本研究期間為2004年1月1日至2010年12月31日共七筆月資料，以Brinson, Hood and Beebower(1986)所提出之架構，稱之為BHB模式。並使用市場實際報酬率取代投資政策報酬率，將市場實際報酬率稱為benchmark，在本研究中該模式稱為修正的BHB模式。兩種模式下對準備金進行歸因分析與解釋能力分析之研究結果為不論採用何種模型，積極投資活動不一定能提供正貢獻。在使用修訂的BHB模式下，投資政策對實際投資組合報酬無解釋能力，顯示出良好的經濟預測能力以及審慎的擬訂投資政策具重要性。

關鍵字

公教人員保險基金 ； 資產配置 ； 投資政策 ； 擇時策略 ； 證券選擇策略 ； 市場實際報酬率

並列摘要

Asset allocation of public servants insurance fund has been an affective issue of management in Taiwan. With the Fund size continuously grows, its investment has become increasingly important. The data periods are between 2004/1/1 ~ 2010/12/31 and there are seven using yearly data. Based Brinson, Hood and Beebower framework proposed by 1986 which called BHB model in the study. We use market return to trace the policy return which called it benchmark. Based the BHB model and used benchmark we called it modified BHB model in the study. Public servants insurance fund were used to attribution it investment performance to each of a number of decisions and employed regression analysis under the two models. The analysis results to whatever the model used, active investment activities may not be able to provide positive contributions. Our analysis shows that investment policy explains 0 percent of the variability of actual portfolio return in the modified BHB model, indicating a accurate predictive power of economic development and prudent investment policy are important.

並列關鍵字

Public Servants Insurance Fund ； Asset Allocation ； Investment Policy ； Market Timing ； Security Selection ； Market Return

參考文獻

符寶玲，2001，「退休基金制度與管理，三版」，台北：華泰文化事業股份有限公司。

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