中共境外用兵決策

China’s Decision Making on the Use of Force Outside Its Border

曾正忠(Cheng-Chung Tseng)

指導教授 ： 黃介正

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2010.01125

摘要

中共建政60年，總共經歷6場主要的境外戰爭，分別是50年代的韓戰及八二三台海戰役，60年代的中印邊界戰和對蘇聯的珍寶島之戰，70年代的懲越戰，以及90年代的台海飛彈危機；從這些戰爭中可以發現一些要點。可概略窺探出中共領導高層的決策思維及其境外用兵的行為模式，大致是循著警告→試探→佈局→攻擊→和解之程序實施；而其慣用的軍事手段不脫離迂迴、奇襲、分進合擊等戰術，以達其軍事威懾或心理震撼之目的！
從中共的戰略思想及理論的演變，可以歸納中共境外動武的特性有以下八點：一、國家安全至上；二、國家主權不容分裂；三、辯證思想；四、備戰思想；五、防禦思想；六、義戰思想；七、慎戰思想；八、謀略思想等。當我們了解中共的用兵決策和它發動戰爭的動因後，有必要循著中共的戰略思維來思考因應，既不會全為中共所控制，亦不致喪失台灣的利益，才能真正確保台灣的安全與安定。

關鍵字

決策模式 ； 積極防禦 ； 黨指揮槍 ； 軍事互信機制

並列摘要

PLA has six years experience of a total of six major foreign war, were 50 years of the Korean War and the Battle of the Taiwan Strait on August 23, 60 years of Sino-Indian border war and the war against the Soviet Union's Treasure Island, 70 punish the Vietnam War era, and the nineties of the Taiwan Strait missile crisis; from these wars can find some points. Could be roughly pry the Chinese communist leadership a high level of thinking and behavioral patterns of foreign military forces, largely followed the warning, test, layout, attack, reconciliation program implementation; and its military means are not from the usual circuitous, surprise, divided into two punch and other tactics to achieve its military deterrence or the purpose of psychological shock!
From the Party's strategic thinking and the theory of evolution can be summed up the characteristics of the Chinese Communists use force outside of the following eight: national security first; national sovereignty can not be split; dialectical thinking; preparing for thought; Defense; Just War thinking; careful ideological war; strategy ideas. When we understand the decision-making and its PLA use of troops to wage war upon the motives, it is necessary to follow the PLA strategic thinking, of coping, neither are all controlled by the Chinese communists, nor cause the loss of Taiwan's interests, can we truly ensure the security of Taiwan and stability.

並列關鍵字

Decision-making model ； active defense ； the party commands the gun ； confidence-building measures

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