不確定需求下之供應鏈管理模型之研究

A Study of Supply Chain Management Models under Demand Uncertainty

何羽婷(Yu-Ting Ho)

指導教授 ： 蔡榮發

國立臺北科技大學/管理學院/經營管理系碩士班/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2014.00220

摘要

本研究主要探討不確定需求存貨的最佳化供應鏈模型，解決不確定需求特性下，產品性質差異的存貨管理問題，並根據指定之服務水準，建立具有安全存量之訂購量上限以滿足顧客變動之需求，模擬供應商、製造商、倉儲中心與零售商各階層之間的關係建立一個最佳供應鏈運作機制，追求完整供應鏈的最大利潤。分別以定量之兩種預測方法-季節性時間序列分析及移動平均法，進行不同產品之未來需求預測，分析不同產品性質與預測方法之合適性，以尋求能正確地使用適配之預測方法，增加供應鏈運作效率，幫助企業降低存貨成本、提升競爭力。並舉例證明研究提出的模型和解決方案，提供了最佳的供應鏈運作機制及存貨策略，以減少整體供應鏈的庫存成本，追求利潤最大化。

關鍵字

存貨管理 ； 不確定需求

並列摘要

This study considers an optimal supply chain management models with uncertain demand. To deal with the problem of inventory management under uncertain demand, we formulate an upper order according to the specified service level, estimated demand and safe stock to satisfy the customer demand. This research will simulate the supply chain behavior that considers the relationship between suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses and retailers, and get the best supply chain operation mechanism to pursuit maximized profits of the whole supply chain. The study estimates the future demand level of different product by time series analysis and moving average demand to analyze the adaptation between the feature of products and forecasting method. Deciding an appropriate forecast to control inventory could reduce cost and enhance the competitiveness of a company. Examples are also presented to demonstrate the proposed model and the solution process of deriving the optimal inventory strategies to reduce inventory costs.

並列關鍵字

Inventory management ； uncertain demand ； deterministic model

參考文獻

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