在過去十年DRAM產業在景氣循環的起伏波動下,使得台灣DRAM廠商在如此驚濤駭浪的產業環境中,歷經獲利與虧損連連;最近幾年來,產業的環境出現世代交替: 8吋晶圓廠轉進至12吋晶圓廠的產能大躍進,0.14/ 0.13um到0.11/0.09um的製造技術的演進,SDR/DDR到DDRII的產品規格上的改變。在如此種種的改變下,供需的失衡勢必造成產業再度面臨巨變!台灣廠商如何面對環境的改變持續保有其競爭優勢? 本研究以系統動態學的觀點,建立簡單的供需模型來預測未來的情境事件,以檢視、探討台灣DRAM廠商在持續擴廠興致力研發的經營策略。
The purpose of this study is to setup a supply-demand model in order to predict the future events for Taiwan DRAM maker as reference of operational strategy. The focus is to make the examination of Taiwan DRAM makers’ firm strategy which builds up fabrication supply and research effort. In fact, DRAM industry has placed in strict circumstances for last ten years. Therefore, Taiwan DRAM makers sometimes make grand profits but mostly make a loss. Meanwhile, the industry supersedes technical generation from 0.14um/0.13um to 0.11um/0.09um, and the gains the output value from 12 inches wafer instead of 8 inches wafer, DRAM products also shift SDR/DDR manufacture spec. to DDRII. The advanced technologies impact the balance between supply and demand, so that the industry must take several challenges. Is there any way out of current circumstances for Taiwan DRAM makers to keep competitive advantage? In system dynamics, this thesis would like to build up a simply model to predict the forecast and make a discussion.