匯率、國內固定資本形成與進出口依賴程度之探討──以台灣製造業為例

台灣長期以來都以半浮動匯率的方式盯住美元、低估台幣的幣值來促進出口，而這個以低估匯率為手段來補助出口製造業的政策一直為經濟學家們所爭論不休，主要是由於台灣身為一個高度開發的小型經濟體，出口貿易是其經濟原動力的重要來源，故維持一個具出口競爭力的匯率是當然選擇；但同時我們除了要承受過高外匯存底的代價，也必須注意到低匯率政策在近幾年產業結構改變，甚至是原物料價格上漲的影響後，刺激台灣製造業的效果是否有所變化。在本篇研究中，我們嘗試藉由架構產業不同的特性，如其淨進出口傾向、市場集中度、依據不同產業建構貿易量加權匯率等，試圖將國內實質固定資本形成、產業、匯率三者做連結，來探討匯率如何透過不同的管道影響台灣製造業。在本研究中我們發現：淨出口傾向越大的產業（IEE越大）在本國貨幣貶值時能夠獲得更多的收益，使得其有誘因進行更多的國內投資，反之淨進口傾向越大則會損失越大；此外我們比較1998到2003年和2004到2009年財富效果和成本效果的變化，發現財富效果有減弱的傾向，而成本效果則有逐步上升的趨勢，顯示以低匯率來補助出口產業的效果，隨著這幾年台灣產業的變化和國際原物料上漲，已不若以往有效；市場集中度的研究方面，越低市場集中度（高PCM）在貶值時可以承受較多成本上的衝擊，在升值時也有較多餘裕去抵禦負面的財富效果。

關鍵字

匯率；國內固定資本形成；進出口依賴程度

並列摘要

It’s been controversial for Taiwan’s underestimating exchange rates policy to subsidy exports. The main reasons are as follows: As a small highly open economy, Taiwan’s export accounts for a big portion of economic development. It’s crucial to set up an underestimated exchange rates to sustain economic growth. However, besides the high-level foreign exchange we might pay for the move, the transition of Taiwan’s industries and the soaring material prices these years also gave us a prospect that this policy might not work as expected. In this research, we try to connect the domestic investment to Taiwan’s manufacturings via several channels like PCM(Price-over-cost Markup), IEE(Index of Effectsive Exposure) and trade-weighted real exchange rates to see how these factors come into effects. We found that large IEE, or more tendency of shipping products overseas, will become more profitable when local currency depreciates, leading to a higher investment. Conversely, small IEE or more tendency of using imported inputs will cause loss and lower investment. On the other hand, we compare the effectss in two periods(1998-2003, 2004-2009), and the result points out that there is less wealth effects bur more cost effects as time changes. When it comes to PCM, the one with higher PCM can absorb moren negative impact of exchange rates.

並列關鍵字

exchange rate ； domestic investment ； index of effective exposure

參考文獻

De Long, J. B. and L. H. Summers (1996). Equipment Investment and Economic Growth. Economic growth: Theory and evidence. Volume 1. G. M. Grossman, Elgar Reference Collection. International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, no. 68.

Bacchetta, P. and E. van Wincoop (2003). "Why Do Consumer Prices React Less Than Import Prices to Exchange Rates?" Journal of the European Economic Association 1(2-3): 662-670.

Baggs, J., E. Beaulieu and L. Fung (2009). "Firm Survival, Performance, and the Exchange Rate." Canadian Journal of Economics 42(2): 393-421.

Baldwin, R. (1990). "Hysteresis in Trade." Empirical Economics 15(2): 127-142.

Baldwin, R. and P. Krugman (1989). "Persistent Trade Effectss of Large Exchange Rate Shocks." Quarterly Journal of Economics 104(4): 635-654.

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匯率、國內固定資本形成與進出口依賴程度之探討──以台灣製造業為例

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