企業價值評估-以S科技公司為例

A Study on the Business Valuation–An Example on S Technology Company

張維棻(Chang, Wei Fen)

指導教授 ： 林哲群

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/經營管理碩士在職專班/碩士(2015年)

摘要

本論文主要在探討公司之真實價值的評估分析，藉由相對價值評價法中的PSR、PBR和PER等三項指標，以及現金流量折現法等方法來進行評估一家具有高營收成長、高獲利與市場週轉率的股票。研究期間從2009年度到2014年度為止以年度資料進行分析，將所得的結果再與業內所發部的評估報告進行比較。最後，經由實證後獲得主要結論：
首先，發現個案公司受市場投資人及法人青睞的原因乃為高營收成長、高獲利之成長型績優股，並享有高本益比和低現金股利率。當未來公司營運的成長性若減緩時，則PSR、PBR和PER等指標勢必會被往下修正，特別是在股價高檔時，三大法人若同時一致賣超時，則可能引發公司一波股價劇烈的調整，這是市場投資人值得注意的地方。
其次，由相對價值評價法所評估的結果，推估個案公司未來一年度 (2015年) 合理的股價區間應落在168.01元到332.90元之間。而現金流量折現法所估計的結果，則發現公司的股價長期要維持200元以上的水準，則公司未來的現金流量成長率要達5% 以上，但以過去的數據顯示不易達成此目標。最後，從業內的評估報告中，則認為個案公司未來目標價是訂在300元以上的水準，恐有樂觀之虞。無論如何，當公司自由現金流量長期是呈現淨流出時，股價若要繼續維持高檔，公司營收成長性也要同步持續上揚，否則股價將被調整修正，這是投資人在操作上應特別值得加以注意的地方。

關鍵字

價值評估 ； 相對價值評價法 ； 現金流量折現法 ； 電機機械類股

並列摘要

This paper discusses the evaluation and analysis of real values of companies. A stock with high business income growth, high profitability and market turnover is evaluated with the indictors of PSR, PBR and PER in value evaluation method and cash flow discount method. The research period is from 2009 to 2014, and the annual data are used for analysis. The results are compared with the evaluation report issued in the industry. Finally, the conclusions are made based on the empirical study.
First, it is found that the case company is favored by investors is that it has a growing income stock of high business income growth, high profitability, and enjoys high price-earning ratio and low cash dividend rate. When the operation growth of the company in the future declines, PSR, PBR, and PER are modified downwardly inevitably. Especially when the stock price is high, if the three major legal persons are oversold simultaneously, a severe stock adjustment is triggered in the company, and this is worth noting by the market investors.
Second, according to the result evaluated with the evaluation method of relative value, it is deducted that the reasonable stock price of the case company in the coming year (2015) should range from NTD 168.01 to NTD 332.90. According to the result estimated by the cash flow discount method, if the stock price of the company should maintain at the level of NTD 200 for a long time, the cash flow of the company in the future should increase by about 5%. However, the historical data indicate that it is difficult to achieve this goal. Finally, according to the industrial evaluation report, it is optimistic to set the future target price of the case company at above NTD 300. When the free cash flow of the company presents net outflow for a long time, if the stock should further remain high, the business income of the company should further grow; otherwise, the stock price is adjusted. This should be specially concerned by the investors in practice.

並列關鍵字

corporate evaluation ； relative valuation method ； discounted cash flow method ； Electric Machinery Industrial Sub-Indices

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