水清無魚? 以混沌觀點探討印表機產業之技術變遷

Fish in Turbulence? The Chaos of Technological Change in Printers

賴俊彥(Jiun-Yan Lai)

指導教授 ： 洪世章

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/科技管理研究所/碩士(2013年)

摘要

本研究透過混沌理論的觀點探討1976年至2010年間全球印表機技術變遷之特質。混沌理論起源於1960年代對於氣象系統的觀察與研究，並提供有別於以往古典力學的非線性思考。本研究兼具量化與質化研究之特質，以準自然研究之精神探討印表機的技術變遷。透過兩種量化分析工具：局部赫斯特指數與局部李亞普諾夫指數，分別闡述印表機技術變遷具有長期記憶與局部混沌，並以個案描述之方式闡述量化分析的結果。本研究發現印表機在1988年9月至1992年10月經歷噴墨印表機的大量商品化，引發第一次混沌；2008年4月至2009年11月經歷個人區域網路的整合，引發第二次混沌。

關鍵字

混沌理論 ； 局部赫斯特指數 ； 局部李亞普諾夫指數 ； 印表機 ； 技術變遷

並列摘要

This paper herein will exam the chaotic pattern of the technological change of printers during the period from 1976 to 2010. Chaos theory was derived from the observations and experiments of meteorology in the 1960s, providing the new concept and thinking logic of nonlinearity differing from the ones of linearity in the past. This paper is characterized by both quantitative and qualitative methodologies, and we employ the quasi-natural study to investigate the pattern of change. We will at first use two quantifiers, local Hurst exponent (LHE) and local Lyapunov exponent (LLE), to state that the printer industry is performed by long-term memory and local chaos respectively. Afterwards, we will illustrate the result of the previous stage via the case study. We discovered that the printer industry underwent the first chaos during the period from September 1988 to October 1992 due to the massive marketing of inkjet printer, and it underwent the second chaos during the period from April 2008 to November 2009 because of the integration with local area network (LAN).

並列關鍵字

chaos theory ； local Hurst exponent ； local Lyapunov exponent ； printers ； technological change

參考文獻

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