分析影響LME鎳金屬價格變動因素

鎳金屬是製作不銹鋼的主要原料，其應用在不銹鋼相關製品的比例約佔全球鎳消費量的66%，所以不銹鋼相關製品的需求就決定了鎳價的走勢，也由於不銹鋼產品的成本中，鎳金屬佔了60%，若能找出鎳價與”影響因子”間的相關性，探究波動因子與鎳價間的關係，作為鎳價走勢的參考，就能降低鎳價格波動風險，維持企業的獲利穩定度。　　根據文獻探討與回顧，共有二十項可能的影響因素，而在這些影響鎳金屬價格因素之中，可歸納為決定鎳價的”供給面與需求面”與”政府政策”兩大原因，需求面因素代表則為中國經濟成長率、中國不銹鋼產量，供給面因素代表則為鎳庫存、油價，政策面代表為美元指數，故本研究是以原油價格、美元匯率、鎳庫存高低、中國不銹鋼產量、中國經濟成長這五項變數做為影響鎳價因子的探討。　　本研究採用SPSS方法中的相關性分析、單元回歸、多元迴歸分析來架構本研究之研究流程。透過次級資料的蒐集，來探討其5因子與鎳價間的關聯性，並以實務面運作解釋其相關性，最後將此關聯性作為預測鎳價的參考，採用的數據期間係來自2007年10月至2017年9月，10年期間以月為基礎分成120期。以單元回歸的實證結果顯示油價、美元指數、中國經濟成長率、中國不銹鋼產量、鎳庫存等五項因子個別皆與LME鎳價呈現高度相關，而其中美元可以代表鎳庫存與不鏽鋼產量說明與鎳價的關係，若以此五項因子比較，又以中國經濟成長率與鎳價關連性最高。　　以多元迴歸分析發現油價與中國經濟成長率對LME鎳價具備高度相關，其中又以中國經濟成長率對鎳價的影響較大。　　本研究成果說明了鎳價走勢與中國經濟成長率、油價呈現高度相關性，建議可做為鎳價走勢的參考，協助管理階層降低經營風險。

關鍵字

鎳金屬；鎳價預測；單元回歸分析；多元回歸分析

並列摘要

Nickel is the main raw material for manufacturing stainless steel. The nickel consumption of stainless steel products accounts for 66% of the global nickel consumption. Therefore, the Nickel demand for stainless steel manufacturing dominated the trend of nickel prices. In addition, the Nickel cost accounted for 60% of the total cost of stainless steel products. If we can find out the correlation between nickel price and "the influencing factor", and analyze the correlation between the fluctuation factor and nickel price, we can avoid the risk of nickel price fluctuations and stabilize the corporate profit by estimating the nickel price. 　　According to the thesis review, there are twenty influencing factors, which might affect nickel metal prices. To conclude these factors, they can be summarized as two major causes affecting nickel price, which are “supply and demand of Nickel” and “government policy” respectively. The demand side indicators are “China GDP growth rate” and “China stainless steel production volume”. The supply side indicators are “nickel stock” and “Brent crude oil prices”. The government policy indicator is the “U.S. dollar index”. Therefore, five factors, Brent crude oil prices, U.S. dollar index, nickel stock, China stainless steel production volume, and China GDP growth rate, are selected as the research target of the nickel price influencing factors. 　　This study adopted the correlation analysis, unit regression, and multiple regression analysis of the SPSS method to construct the research process. By collecting the secondary data, exploring the data relevance of five factors, and interpreting the result through practical application, we may take these correlations as the reference of nickel price prediction. The data collecting period is from October 2007 to September 2017, divided into 120 periods on a monthly basis over a 10-year period. 　　The empirical results by unit regression show that five factors, such as Brent crude oil price, U.S. dollar index, China GDP growth rate, China stainless steel production volume, and nickel stock, are all highly correlated with LME nickel prices, of which the U.S. dollar is highly correlated with LME nickel prices on behalf of the nickel stock and China stainless steel production volume. Among these five factors, China GDP growth rate is identified as the best indicator to estimate the nickel price with a positive correlation of 63%. 　　Multiple regression analysis found that the price of LME nickel can be predicted both by the Brent crude oil price and China GDP growth rate, and the accuracy rate is 77%. However, if an indicator must be selected between the Brent oil price and the China GDP growth rate, the China GDP growth rate will prevail. It shows that for every China GDP growth rate changes 1%, the nickel price will changes 0.6%. 　　The results of this study show that the trend of nickel prices is highly correlated with China GDP growth rate and Brent crude oil price with the highest correlation. The study suggest that China GDP growth rate and Brent crude oil price can be used as a reference for estimating the trend of nickel prices, and minimizing the material operating risks.