核能電廠管制單位電廠視察員風險顯著性決策支援系統之探討

The Study of Decision Support System in Risk Significance for Nuclear Power Plants Inspectors

許淑禎(Shu-Tsen Hsu)

指導教授 ： 許通安

中原大學/商學院/資訊管理學系/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200600279

摘要

美國核管會於2003年3月公佈核能視察法規NRC Inspection Manual Chapter 0609（簡稱IMC 0609），此法規主要目的在協助管制單位派駐核電廠的視察員，評估視察發現在風險上的顯著性，此法規提出風險顯著性確立程序（Significance Determination Process，簡稱SDP），提供給視察員進行視察判定時的依據。
　　本研究所建置之「核能電廠管制單位電廠視察員風險顯著性決策支援系統」將NRC Inspection Manual Chapter 0609（IMC 0609）的觀念與精神以決策支援系統架構呈現給駐廠視察員，本研究引用核電廠安全度評估（Probabilistic Risk Assessment，簡稱PRA）做其視察評估的分析技術，評估反應爐發生爐心熔損的頻率（Core Damage Frequency，簡稱CDF）與圍阻體發生早期輻射大量外釋的頻率（Large Early Release Frequency，簡稱LERF）來評定駐廠視察員在視察發現的風險顯著性。
　　本研究透過Sprague與Carlson的ROMC分析方法確立本研究之風險顯著性決策支援系統架構，並使用雛型法概念建置系統，本系統主要目的在於協助核電廠駐廠視察員進行監督式的視察，提供給視察員利用資訊化技術作客觀與科學的風險分析，將核電廠營運風險透明化、科學化，以期提升核電廠的管理營運績效。
　　本研究在系統評估上採用定性與定量的評估方式，定性系統評估是藉由視察員分別使用本研究風險顯著性決策支援系統與使用IMC 0609法規的進行視察判定；定量系統評估是藉由比較本研究的風險顯著性決策支援系統與核能界所使用的安全度分析軟體的運算結果（WinNUPRA、TRIM），評估在相同的失效設定下，使用本研究的風險顯著性決策支援系統與其他安全度評估軟體進行視察判定，藉由專家訪談，得知本研究量化的結果落在合理可接受的範圍內，但本研究所提供之視察判定功能、模擬核電廠失效機率上升的功能、量化計算的時間與量化所需之輸入檔案皆優於其他安全度分析軟體。

關鍵字

決策支援系統 ； 安全度評估 ； 風險顯著性確立程序 ； 風險告知

並列摘要

United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) announces NRC Inspection Manual Chapter 0609 (IMC 0609) in March, 2003, the purpose of this manual helps nuclear resident inspectors to determine the nuclear rsik significance of inspection findings. This manual provides the the concept of significance determination process, and helps nuclear resident inspectors to identify potentially risk-significant issues.
　　This study developes the decision support system of rsik significance for nuclear resident inspectors. This system uses the structure of decision support system and includes the concept of IMC 0609 for inspectors. This study uses the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) skill for the calculation of core damage frequency (CDF), Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) to determine the risk increase of insprction findings.
　　This study uses the ROMC analysis theory from Spragus and Carlson and prototyping developtopmental skill to build the structure of rsik significance decision support system. The purpose of this system is to help nuclear inspectors to determine the safety significance of inspection findings, and provide the additional risk analysis to help inspects to further understand the risk insight of inspections findings.
　　This study uses the qualitative assess and quantitative assess to assess the performance of this study. In the qualitative assess, we compare the results between the risk significance DSS system with IMC 0609, and in the quantitative assess, we compare the results between the risk significance DSS system with other software (WinNUPRA, TRIM) that usually uses in the nuclear domain. According the export assent, the risk significance DSS system is better than other software in inspectors finding, approximating the changing failure rate, calculateing time, the input files before calculateing.

並列關鍵字

Decision Support System (DSS) ； Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) ； Risk-Informed Regulation ； Significance Determination Process (SDP)

參考文獻

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【23】 Alter, “A Taxonomy of Decision Support Systems,” Sloan Management Review, Vol. 19, No. 1, 1977, pp. 39-56.

【30】 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), “An Approach for Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decision marking on Plant-Sepcific Changes to Current Licensing Basis,” RG 1.174, Rev.1, November, 2002.

【31】 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), “Power Reactor Inspection Reports Appendix B,” IMC 0612, January 2004.

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