台灣人口結構與股票市場趨勢探討

Population Structure and Stock Market Trend in Taiwan

陳琦仁(Chi-Jen Chen)

指導教授 ： 高一誠

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201400270

摘要

摘要

根據國外學者的研究，顯示戰後嬰兒潮人們到退休年齡時，會將資產從股票市場轉移出去，藉此推斷未來股票市場走向與預測。基於此點，本研究目的主要是:(1)由過去台灣人口結構與股票市場上的關係探討(2)男女個別比例與各產業類別做比較分析。探討台灣是否會因人口老化、人口結構快速變遷下，對於股票市場上變化，依據男女人口比例繼續分析至各產業別的投資變化。

本研究首先由內政部人口資料整理台灣近30年來各年齡層變化，以20-29歲人口為(Young)、30-39歲人口為(M3)、40-49歲人口為(M4)、50-59歲人口為(M5)、60-69歲人口為(Old)，並以20-29歲人口/60-69歲人口為(Y/O ratio)，30-39歲人口/60-69歲人口(M3/O ratio)，40-49歲人口/60-69歲人口(M4/O ratio)，50-59歲人口/60-69歲人口(M5/O ratio)，其中針對各年齡層人口結構與老年人口比來做比較分析，再細分男女人口與個別產業股票市場，去除不合理與補齊數據後來做比較分析。

經過分析後，我們可發現到大盤部份M3/O ratio最為顯著，男性和女性人口方面M4/O ratio 、M5/O ratio皆呈現負向關係，代表與大盤呈反向走勢，可推斷出有移轉出股票市場跡象。而其餘個別類股方面，投資人偏好食品等傳統類股。本研究提供台灣過去投資人各年齡層投資產業與即將退休人們投資上比例的變化來探討，藉由此資訊提供給想投資股票市場的投資人參考依據。
關鍵字:人口結構、人口老化、資產價格

關鍵字

人口老化 ； 人口結構 ； 資產價格

並列摘要

Abstract
According to the studies made by foreign scholars, they show people when the postwar baby boom retirement, the assets will be transferred out from the stock market, thereby infer future stock market trends and forecasts. The main purposes of this study are: (1) the relationship between the past and the Taiwan stock market with demographic discussion (2) the proportion of individual men and women and to make a comparative analysis of each industry category. To investigate whether Taiwan due to the aging population, rapid demographic changes, changes in the stock market, according to the proportion of male and female population continues to analyze changes in various industries other investments.
In this study, by the Ministry of the Interior of the population changes in data compilation of all ages come to Taiwan for nearly 30 years to 20-29 years old population (Young) ,30-39 year-old population (M3) ,40-49 year-old population (M4), 50 -59 years old population (M5) ,60-69-year-old population (Old), and the 20-29 years old population / 60-69 years old population (Y / O ratio) ,30-39 years old population / 60-69 years old population (M3 / O ratio) ,40-49 years old population / 60-69 years old population (M4 / O ratio) ,50-59 year-old population / 60-69 years old population (M5 / O ratio), where the population for all ages structure and comparative analysis than do the older population, male and female population is subdivided with individual industry stock market, remove unreasonable compared with the padded data later analysis.
Our empirical results found that some of the broader M3 / O ratio is most remarkable men and women demographic M4 / O ratio, M5 / O ratio are showing a negative relationship, representatives inversely with the market trend, there can be deduced Migration out of the stock market signs. The remaining terms of individual stocks, investors prefer stocks and other traditional foods. This study provides Taiwanese investors of all ages past investment industry and investment in the proportion of people approaching retirement to explore changes, by providing this information for investors.

Keywords: Population Structure, Population Aging, Asset Prices

並列關鍵字

Population Aging ； Asset Prices ； Population Structure

參考文獻

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